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Market Segmentation and the 'Hump-Shaped' Response of Output to Monetary Policy Shocks

  • Filippo Occhino

    ()

    (Rutgers University)

After a contractionary monetary policy shock, aggregate output decreases over time, with a trough after four to eight quarters. In a benchmark full participation model, the effect of a contractionary shock on output is strongest in the impact period and decays over time. When some households do not participate in financial markets, however, the shock has an additional liquidity effect, it increases the real interest rate, and it decreases the growth rate of the participants' labor supply. As a result, the trough of the equilibrium aggregate labor and output response occurs after several quarters. The model is able to replicate the sign, the magnitude and the persistence of the responses of output, money, and interest rates. Abstract: In the data, after a contractionary monetary policy shock aggregate output decreases over time, with a trough after four to eight quarters. This paper replicates the `hump-shaped' response of output with a segmented markets model where part of the households are excluded from financial markets. A contractionary monetary policy shock is modeled as an unanticipated increase in the short-term nominal interest rate. Since households and firms need cash-in-advance to purchase consumption and hire labor, an increase in the nominal interest rate discourages the households' consumption demand and labor supply, and the firms' labor demand. In a benchmark full participation model, the effect is strongest in the impact period, and decays over time. When markets are segmented, however, the shock has an additional liquidity effect, increasing the real interest rate above fundamentals, and decreasing the growth rate of the participants' labor supply. As a result, the response of the aggregate labor and output has a trough several quarters after the shock. The model is able to replicate the sign, the magnitude and the persistence of the responses of output, money, prices and interest rates. It can generate a positive response of the real interest rate together with a negative response of the output growth rate.

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Paper provided by Rutgers University, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 200410.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 09 Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rut:rutres:200410
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  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1992. "Liquidity effects and the monetary transmission mechanism," Staff Report 150, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
  3. Cooley, Thomas F & Hansen, Gary D, 1989. "The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 733-48, September.
  4. David B. Gordon & Eric M. Leeper, 1992. "The dynamic impacts of monetary policy: an exercise in tentative identification," Working Paper 92-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  5. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
  6. Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1995. "Measuring Monetary Policy," Economics Series 10, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994. "The effects of monetary policy shocks: evidence from the Flow of Funds," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  8. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1990. "Liquidity and interest rates," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 237-264, April.
  9. Occhino, Filippo, 2008. "Market Segmentation And The Response Of The Real Interest Rate To Monetary Policy Shocks," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(05), pages 591-618, November.
  10. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
  11. Fuerst, Timothy S., 1992. "Liquidity, loanable funds, and real activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 3-24, February.
  12. Filippo Occhino, 2004. "Modeling the Response of Money and Interest Rates to Monetary Policy Shocks: A Segmented Markets Approach," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(1), pages 181-197, January.
  13. Strongin, Steven, 1995. "The identification of monetary policy disturbances explaining the liquidity puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 463-497, June.
  14. Grossman, Sanford & Weiss, Laurence, 1983. "A Transactions-Based Model of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 871-80, December.
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