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On Low-Frequency Estimates of "Long-Run" Relationships in Macro- economics

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  • Bennett T. McCallum

Abstract

A number of recent studies have attempted to test propositions concerning "long runt" economic relationships by means of frequency-domain time series techniques that concentrate attention on low frequency co-movements of variables.The present paper emphasizes that many of these propositions involve expectational relationships that are not inherently related to specific frequencies or periodicities. Thus the association of low-frequency time series test statistics with long-run economic propositions is not generally warranted. That such an association can be misleading is demonstrated by analysis of examples taken from notable papers by Geweke, Lucas, and Summers.

Suggested Citation

  • Bennett T. McCallum, 1983. "On Low-Frequency Estimates of "Long-Run" Relationships in Macro- economics," NBER Working Papers 1162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1162
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    1. Sargent, Thomas J, 1971. "A Note on the 'Accelerationist' Controversy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 721-725, August.
    2. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-115, March.
    3. Lawrence H. Summers, 1982. "The Nonadjustment of Nominal Interest Rates: A Study of the Fisher Effect," NBER Working Papers 0836, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Bennet T. McCallum, 1984. "A Linearized Version of Lucas's Neutrality Model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(1), pages 138-145, February.
    5. Engle, Robert F, 1974. "Band Spectrum Regression," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, February.
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