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Modelling the Fisher hypothesis: World wide evidence

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  • Herwartz, Helmut
  • Reimers, Hans-Eggert

Abstract

In this paper we follow an empirical approach to examine the implications of the Fisher hypothesis, namely cointegration linking interest rates and inflation, and stationarity of the real interest rate implying in turn homogeneity of the potential equilibrium relation. The considered sample is an unbalanced panel and comprises monthly time series data from more than 100 economies covering at most a period of about 45 years. In total more than 31000 observations enter our empirical analysis. From cross sectional error correction and dynamic OLS regressions we find that the presumed dynamic relation is hardly homogeneous over the cross section. Therefore, building on cross sectional parameter homogeneity nonstationary panel data models are provided merely as a complement to cross section specific analyses. Apart from standard between regressions we exploit the cross section dimension to infer on parameter homogeneity over particular economic states. For this purpose we rely on semiparametric implementations of so-called functional coefficient models. The latter are suitable to relate key model parameters on economic states, as e.g. periods of higher vs. lower inflation or inflation risk. From the latter approach we find that time or state invariance of key model parameters is not supported empirically. Moreover the evidence in favor of cointegration is weak over periods of high inflation. The Fisher coefficient turns out to be remarkably stable and is, over most considered states, significantly less than unity.

Suggested Citation

  • Herwartz, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2006. "Modelling the Fisher hypothesis: World wide evidence," Economics Working Papers 2006-04, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cauewp:4136
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    Cited by:

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    2. Pelin Oge Guney & Erdinc Telatar & Mubariz Hasanov, 2012. "Time Series Behaviour of the Real Interest Rates in Transition Economies," Hacettepe University Department of Economics Working Papers 20125, Hacettepe University, Department of Economics.
    3. Amaefula C. G, 2016. "The Effects of Inflation and its Risk on Interest Rate: An Empirical Evidence from Nigeria," Economy, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 3(2), pages 74-78.
    4. Muhammed TIRAŞOĞLU, 2018. "Fisher Hipotezinin MINT Ülkeleri İçin İncelenmesi: Eşik Değerli Adl Eşbütünleşme Testi Yaklaşımı," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 14(28), pages 31-43, December.
    5. Mohammed Saiful ISLAM & Mohammad Hasmat ALI, 2012. "Taylor Principle Supplements the Fisher Effect: Empirical Investigation under the US Context," Economia. Seria Management, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 15(1), pages 189-203, June.
    6. El-Shagi, Makram, 2009. "Inflation Expectations: Does the Market Beat Professional Forecasts?," IWH Discussion Papers 16/2009, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fisher hypothesis; Panel cointegration analysis; Functional coefficient models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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