IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

A Panel Analysis of the Fisher Effect with an Unobserved I(1) World Real Interest Rate

Listed author(s):
  • G. EVERAERT

    ()

The Fisher effect states that in ation expectations should be re ected in nominal interest rates in a one-for-one manner to compensate for changes in the purchasing power of money. Despite its wide acceptance in theory, much of the empirical work fails to find favorable evidence. This paper exam- ines the Fisher effect in a panel of 21 OECD countries over the period 1983-2010. A first generation panel test finds cointegration between nominal interest rates and infl ation. However, a non-stationary common factor in the error terms of this alleged cointegrating relation is detected using the Panel Analysis of Non-stationarity in Idiosyncratic and Common Components (PANIC). This implies that the regression results are spurious. A possible interpretation for the non-stationary common factor is that it re ects permanent common shifts in the real interest rate induced by e.g. shifts in time preferences, risk aversion and the steady-state growth rate of technological change. We next control for an unobserved non-stationary common factor in estimating the Fisher equation using both the Common Correlated Effects (CCE) and the Continuously Updated (Cup) estimation approach. The impact of in ation on the nominal interest rate is found to be insignificantly different from 1.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://wps-feb.ugent.be/Papers/wp_12_782.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its series Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium with number 12/782.

as
in new window

Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2012
Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:12/782
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Hoveniersberg 4, B-9000 Gent

Phone: ++ 32 (0) 9 264 34 61
Fax: ++ 32 (0) 9 264 35 92
Web page: http://www.ugent.be/eb

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window

  1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "Perspectives on High World Real Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 273-334.
  2. Kapetanios, G. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yamagata, T., 2011. "Panels with non-stationary multifactor error structures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(2), pages 326-348, February.
  3. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Smith, Ron, 2006. "Unobserved heterogeneity in panel time series models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2361-2380, May.
  4. Roberts John M., 2001. "Estimates of the Productivity Trend Using Time-Varying Parameter Techniques," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-32, July.
  5. Peter C. B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1057-1112, September.
  6. Koustas, Zisimos & Serletis, Apostolos, 1999. "On the Fisher effect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 105-130, August.
  7. Jushan Bai & Chihwa Kao & Serena Ng, 2007. "Panel Cointegration with Global Stochastic Trends," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 90, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  8. Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988. " Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December.
  9. Pesaran, M.H., 2003. "A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0346, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  10. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-1395, November.
  11. Bai, Jushan, 2004. "Estimating cross-section common stochastic trends in nonstationary panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 137-183, September.
  12. Chadha, Jagjit S & Dimsdale, Nicholas H, 1999. "A Long View of Real Rates," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 17-45, Summer.
  13. Anindya Banerjee & Josep Lluis Carrion-i-Silvestre, 2011. "Cointegration in Panel Data with Breaks and Cross-section Dependence," Discussion Papers 11-25, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  14. Geert Bekaert & Xiaozheng Wang, 2010. "Inflation risk and the inflation risk premium," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 25, pages 755-806, October.
  15. Banerjee, Anindya & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, 2002. "Testing for PPP: Should We Use Panel Methods?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 13, Royal Economic Society.
  16. PERRON, Pierre & RODRIGUEZ, Gabriel, 1998. "GLS Detrending, Efficient Unit Root Tests and Structural Change," Cahiers de recherche 9809, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  17. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999. "Forecasting Inflation," NBER Working Papers 7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Darren Pain & Ryland Thomas, 1997. "Real Interest Rate Linkages: Testing for Common Trends and Cycles," Bank of England working papers 65, Bank of England.
  19. Douglas Holtz-Eakin & Whitney K. Newey & Harvey S. Rosen, 1987. "The Revenues-Expenditures Nexus: Evidence from Local Government Data," NBER Working Papers 2180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Peter C.B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Bias in Dynamic Panel Estimation with Fixed Effects, Incidental Trends and Cross Section Dependence," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1438, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jun 2004.
  21. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2006. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  22. Jong Eun Lee, 2002. "On the Characterisation of the World Real Interest Rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 247-255, 02.
  23. Joseph E. Gagnon & Mark D. Unferth, 1993. "Is there a world real interest rate?," International Finance Discussion Papers 454, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  24. Hyungsik Roger MOON & Benoit PERRON, 2002. "Testing For A Unit Root In Panels With Dynamic Factors," Cahiers de recherche 18-2002, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  25. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 519, Boston College Department of Economics.
  26. Ardagna, Silvia, 2009. "Financial Markets’ Behavior Around Episodes of Large Changes in the Fiscal Stance," Scholarly Articles 2579824, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  27. Elliott, Graham, 1999. "Efficient Tests for a Unit Root When the Initial Observation Is Drawn from Its Unconditional Distribution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 767-783, August.
  28. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-652, Special I.
  29. Everaert Gerdie, 2011. "Estimation and Inference in Time Series with Omitted I(1) Variables," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-28, January.
  30. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2000. "The resurgence of growth in the late 1990s: is information technology the story?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  31. Crowder, William J & Hoffman, Dennis L, 1996. "The Long-Run Relationship between Nominal Interest Rates and Inflation: The Fisher Equation Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 102-118, February.
  32. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
  33. Banerjee, A. & Marcellino, M. & Osbat, C., 2000. "Some Cautions on the Use of Panel Methods for Integrated Series of Macro-economic Data," Economics Working Papers eco2000/20, European University Institute.
  34. Jean‐Pierre Urbain & Joakim Westerlund, 2011. "Least Squares Asymptotics in Spurious and Cointegrated Panel Regressions with Common and Idiosyncratic Stochastic Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(1), pages 119-139, 02.
  35. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1990. "World Real Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 15-74 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Darby, Michael R, 1975. "The Financial and Tax Effects of Monetary Policy on Interest Rates," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(2), pages 266-276, June.
  38. Kees Koedijk & Clemens Kool & Tjerk Kroes, 1994. "Changes in world real interest rates and inflationary expectations," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(4), pages 712-729, December.
  39. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  40. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 440, Boston College Department of Economics.
  41. Joakim Westerlund, 2008. "Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher effect," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 193-233.
  42. Rapach, David E. & Weber, Christian E., 2004. "Are real interest rates really nonstationary? New evidence from tests with good size and power," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 409-430, September.
  43. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  44. G. Kapetanios, 2008. "A bootstrap procedure for panel data sets with many cross-sectional units," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(2), pages 377-395, 07.
  45. Robert Mundell, 1963. "Inflation and Real Interest," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 280-280.
  46. Evans, Martin D D & Lewis, Karen K, 1995. " Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Affect Estimates of the Long-Run Fisher Relation?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 225-253, March.
  47. Auteri, Monica & Costantini, Mauro, 2010. "A panel cointegration approach to estimating substitution elasticities in consumption," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 782-787, May.
  48. Costantini, Mauro & Destefanis, Sergio, 2009. "Cointegration analysis for cross-sectionally dependent panels: The case of regional production functions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 320-327, March.
  49. Cook, Steven & Manning, Neil, 2004. "Lag optimisation and finite-sample size distortion of unit root tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 267-274, August.
  50. Christian Gengenbach & Franz C. Palm & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2006. "Cointegration Testing in Panels with Common Factors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 683-719, December.
  51. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," CESifo Working Paper Series 1331, CESifo Group Munich.
  52. Ardagna, Silvia, 2009. "Financial markets' behavior around episodes of large changes in the fiscal stance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 37-55, January.
  53. Lai, Kon S., 2008. "The puzzling unit root in the real interest rate and its inconsistency with intertemporal consumption behavior," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 140-155, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:12/782. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Nathalie Verhaeghe)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.