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Estimation and Inference in Time Series with Omitted I(1) Variables

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  • Everaert Gerdie

    (SHERPPA, Ghent University)

Abstract

Standard cointegration analysis yields spurious results when relevant I(1) variables are omitted from the model. As an alternative, an unobserved components approach is proposed where the error term is modelled as the sum of a transitory and a random walk component. The latter should capture omitted I(1) variables and is allowed to be correlated with the observed I(1) variables. Provided that the model is correctly specified and identified, the long-run relation between the non-cointegrated variables can be estimated consistently with maximum likelihood using the Kalman filter. The robustness of this approach to the integration properties of the error terms is supported for small samples via an extensive Monte Carlo study. The proposed methodology is applied to testing purchasing power parity.

Suggested Citation

  • Everaert Gerdie, 2011. "Estimation and Inference in Time Series with Omitted I(1) Variables," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-28, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jtsmet:v:2:y:2011:i:2:n:2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dierk Herzer, 2016. "Unions and Income Inequality: A Heterogeneous Panel Co-integration and Causality Analysis," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 30(3), pages 318-346, September.
    2. Herzer, Dierk & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2015. "Income inequality and health: Evidence from developed and developing countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 9, pages 1-56.
    3. Everaert, Gerdie, 2014. "A panel analysis of the fisher effect with an unobserved I(1) world real interest rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 198-210.
    4. Herzer, Dierk, 2014. "Unions and income inequality: a heterogenous cointegration and causality analysis," Working Paper 146/2014, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.
    5. Herzer, Dierk, 2015. "The long-run effect of foreign direct investment on total factor productivity in developing countries: A panel cointegration analysis," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112827, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Dierk Herzer & Holger Strulik, 2017. "Religiosity and income: a panel cointegration and causality analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(30), pages 2922-2938, June.
    7. Nicole Grunewald & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2014. "Green Growth in Mexico, Brazil and Chile: Policy strategies and future prospects," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 229, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Herzer, Dierk, 2014. "The long-run relationship between trade and population health: evidence from five decades," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100441, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Krenz, Astrid, 2013. "Political institutions and trade-evidence for the long-run relationship and causality," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 182, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    10. repec:bla:worlde:v:40:y:2017:i:2:p:462-487 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Herzer, Dierk & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2013. "Private Donations, Government Grants, Commercial Activities, and Fundraising: Cointegration and Causality for NGOs in International Development Cooperation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 234-251.
    12. Krenz, Astrid, 2016. "Do political institutions influence international trade? Measurement of institutions and the Long-Run effects," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 276, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.

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