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Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility: A Spurious Relationship?

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  • Gerdie Everaert
  • Hauke Vierke

Abstract

This paper replicates the estimation results of three studies on the impact of the age composition of the labor force on business cycle volatility and investigates whether they signal a meaningful long-run relationship. We show that both the volatile-age labor force share variable and the business cycle volatility measure exhibit non-stationary behavior but find no robust evidence of cointegration. Hence, the estimation results reported in the literature may be spurious. This conclusion is further supported by the finding that the strong relationship (i) disappears when cross-sectional dependence is accounted for using the CCEP estimator and (ii) is highly sensitive to small changes in the composition of the sample, to data revisions, and to the exact definition of the volatile-age labor share.
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Suggested Citation

  • Gerdie Everaert & Hauke Vierke, 2016. "Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility: A Spurious Relationship?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1467-1477, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:31:y:2016:i:7:p:1467-1477
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
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    1. repec:taf:irapec:v:32:y:2018:i:4:p:525-545 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Vincenzo Atella & Lorenzo Carbonari & Paola Samà, 2017. "Hours Worked in Selected OECD Countries: an Empirical Assessment," CEIS Research Paper 412, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 21 Jul 2017.

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