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Spurious regression under broken trend stationarity

Author

Listed:
  • Antonio E. Noriega

    () (Department of Economics and Finance, Universidad de Guanajuato)

  • Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia

    () (Department of Economics and Finance, Universidad de Guanajuato)

Abstract

We study the phenomenon of spurious regression between two random variables, when the generating mechanism of individual series is assumed to follow a stationary process around a trend with (possibly) multiple breaks in the level and slope of trend. We develop the relevant asymptotic theory and show that the phenomenon of spurious regression occurs independently of the structure assumed for the errors. In contrast to previous findings, the presence of a spurious relationship will be less severe when breaks are present in the generating mechanism of individual series. This is true whether the regression model includes a linear trend or not. Simulations confirm our asymptotic results, and reveal that in finite samples, the phenomenon of spurious regression is sensitive to the presence of a linear trend in the regression model, and to the relative location of breaks within the sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, 2005. "Spurious regression under broken trend stationarity," Department of Economics and Finance Working Papers EM200501, Universidad de Guanajuato, Department of Economics and Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:gua:wpaper:em200501
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:wly:japmet:v:31:y:2016:i:7:p:1467-1477 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, 2012. "The effect of structural breaks on the Engle-Granger test for cointegration," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 27(1), pages 99-132.
    3. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2007. "Spurious Regression and Trending Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(3), pages 439-444, June.
    4. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2010. "Spurious Long-Horizon Regression in Econometrics," Working Papers 2010-06, Banco de México.
    5. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
    6. Hrishikesh D. Vinod, 2008. "Heteroscedasticity and Autocorrelation Efficient (HAE) Estimation and Pivots for Jointly Evolving Series," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2008-15, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
    7. Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, 2007. "Spurious Instrumental Variables," Department of Economics and Finance Working Papers EM200704, Universidad de Guanajuato, Department of Economics and Finance, revised Mar 2009.
    8. Gerdie Everaert & Hauke Vierke, 2016. "Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility: A Spurious Relationship?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1467-1477, November.
    9. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2011. "A Simple Test for Spurious Regressions," Working Papers 2011-05, Banco de México.
    10. Ventosa-Santaularària, Daniel & Gómez, Manuel, 2006. "Inflation and Breaks: the validity of the Dickey-Fuller test," MPRA Paper 58773, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Jin, Hao & Zhang, Jinsuo & Zhang, Si & Yu, Cong, 2013. "The spurious regression of AR(p) infinite-variance sequence in the presence of structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 25-40.
    12. Granger, Clive W.J., 2012. "Useful conclusions from surprising results," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 142-146.
    13. repec:sbe:breart:v:29:y:2009:i:1:a:2693 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2006. "Spurious Regression and Econometric Trends," Working Papers 2006-05, Banco de México.
    15. Travaglini, Guido, 2008. "Dynamic GMM Estimation With Structural Breaks. An Application to Global Warming and its Causes," MPRA Paper 7108, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2006. "Spurious Cointegration: The Engle-Granger Test in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2006-12, Banco de México.
    17. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, 2005. "Spurious regression under deterministic and stochastic trends," Department of Economics and Finance Working Papers EM200503, Universidad de Guanajuato, Department of Economics and Finance.
    18. Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel & Noriega, Antonio E., 2015. "Long-run monetary neutrality under stochastic and deterministic trends," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 372-382.
    19. Manuel Gómez Zaldivar & Oscar Manjarrez Castro & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2009. "Regresión espuria en especificaciones dinámicas," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 1-20, May.
    20. Travaglini, Guido, 2010. "Dynamic Econometric Testing of Climate Change and of its Causes," MPRA Paper 23600, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stationarity; Structural breaks; Spurious regression;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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