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Spurious Regression and Econometric Trends

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  • Noriega Antonio E.
  • Ventosa-Santaulària Daniel

Abstract

This paper analyses the asymptotic and finite sample implications of different types of nonstationary behavior among the dependent and explanatory variables in a linear spurious regression model. We study cases when the nonstationarity in the dependent and explanatory variables is deterministic as well as stochastic. In particular, we derive the order in probability of the t-statistic in a linear regression equation under a variety of empirically relevant data generation processes, and show that the spurious regression phenomenon is present in all cases considered, when at least one of the variables behaves in a nonstationary way. Simulation experiments confirm our asymptotic results.

Suggested Citation

  • Noriega Antonio E. & Ventosa-Santaulària Daniel, 2006. "Spurious Regression and Econometric Trends," Working Papers 2006-05, Banco de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2006-05
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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