Regresión espuria en especificaciones dinámicas
The spurious regression phenomenon, identified by Granger and Newbold (1974) is well known in econometrics. In fact, spurious regression occurs under a wide variety of Data Generating Processes: driftless unit root, unit root with drift, trend stationarity, broken-trend stationarity,… However, the phenomenon has been solely studied under the assumption that the specification to be estimated is a simple linear regression with a single regressand. We prove in this article that the spurious regression phenomenon also occurs when a dynamic specification is estimated. Dynamic specifications are commonly employed to model expectations. Our results extend the common knowledge concerning spurious regression usually found in popular textbooks: when the variables are trend stationary (i) using them in dynamic specification does not preclude the Durbin-Watson statistic to collapse so the latter is not a reliable tool in the identification of the spurious regression, and (ii) including the lagged value of the dependent variable as a regressand does not always solve the problem of spurious regression.
Volume (Year): XXVIII (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Avenida Lazaro Cardenas 4600 Ote., Fraccionamiento Residencial Las Torres, C.P. 64930. Monterrey, Nuevo Leon. México.|
Phone: +52 (81) 8329 4150
Fax: +52 (81) 8342 2897
Web page: http://www.economia.uanl.mx
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
- Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia & Antonio E. Noriega, 2005.
"Spurious regression under broken trend stationarity,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2005
186, Society for Computational Economics.
- Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2006. "Spurious Regression Under Broken-Trend Stationarity," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 671-684, 09.
- Noriega, Antonio E. & Ventosa Santaulària, Daniel, 2005. "Spurious regression under broken trend stationarity," MPRA Paper 58768, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, 2005. "Spurious regression under broken trend stationarity," Department of Economics and Finance Working Papers EM200501, Universidad de Guanajuato, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Entorf, Horst, 1997. "Random walks with drifts: Nonsense regression and spurious fixed-effect estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 287-296, October.
- Tsay, Wen-Jen & Chung, Ching-Fan, 2000. "The spurious regression of fractionally integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 155-182, May.
- Marmol, Francesc, 1996. "Nonsense Regressions between Integrated Processes of Different Orders," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 525-36, August.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985.
"Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:xxviii:y:2009:i:1:p:1-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dora María Vega Facio)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.