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Spurious regression under broken trend stationarity

  • Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia
  • Antonio E. Noriega

We study the phenomenon of spurious regression between two random variables when the generating mechanism for individual series follows a stationary process around a trend with (possibly) multiple breaks in its level and slope. We develop relevant asymptotic theory and show that spurious regression occurs independently of the structure assumed for the errors. In contrast to previous findings, the spurious relationship is less severe when breaks are present, whether or not the regression model includes a linear trend. Simulations confirm our asymptotic results and reveal that, in finite samples, the spurious regression is sensitive to the presence of a linear trend and to the relative locations of the breaks within the sample

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 with number 186.

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Date of creation: 11 Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf5:186
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  1. Richard Startz, 1998. "Growth States and Shocks," Working Papers 0064, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
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  9. Ben-David, D. & Papell, D.H., 1995. "The Great War, The Great Crash and Steady State Growth: Some New Evidence an Old Stylized Fact," Papers 36-95, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
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  12. Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall.
  13. Entorf, Horst, 1997. "Random walks with drifts: Nonsense regression and spurious fixed-effect estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 287-296, October.
  14. Marmol, Francesc, 1998. "Spurious regression theory with nonstationary fractionally integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 233-250, June.
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  18. BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  19. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
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