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International Evidence on Persistence in Output in the Presence of an Episodic Change

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  • Raj, Baldev

Abstract

This paper uses some newly developed methods and techniques to examine the dynamic properties of international output in the presence of a structural break. The author provides statistical evidence to show that the unit root test results can, in some cases, be sensitive to whether a one-time structural break in the data is modeled exogenously or endogenously. However, in most cases the unit root test results remain robust to specification of the structural break exogenously or endogenously; moreover, he finds that the null hypothesis of a unit root in output can be rejected in favor of a "flexible" trend alternative for a number of countries such as Canada, Denmark, France, and the United States. Copyright 1992 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Raj, Baldev, 1992. "International Evidence on Persistence in Output in the Presence of an Episodic Change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 281-293, July-Sept.
  • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:7:y:1992:i:3:p:281-93
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    Cited by:

    1. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2006. "Spurious Regression Under Broken-Trend Stationarity," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 671-684, September.
    2. Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David, 1994. "The Great Wars, the Great Crash, and the Unit Root Hypothesis: Some New Evidence About An Old Stylized Fact," CEPR Discussion Papers 965, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Skalin, Joakim & Terasvirta, Timo, 1999. "Another Look at Swedish Business Cycles, 1861-1988," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 359-378, July-Aug..
    4. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Claude Lopez, 2013. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts, and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 892-927, November.
    5. Dan Ben-David & Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 2003. "Unit roots, postwar slowdowns and long-run growth: Evidence from two structural breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 303-319, April.
    6. Kumar Narayan, Paresh, 2005. "The relationship between saving and investment for Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 293-309, August.
    7. Darne, Olivier & Diebolt, Claude, 2004. "Unit roots and infrequent large shocks: new international evidence on output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1449-1465, October.
    8. Noriega, Antonio E. & Soria, Luis M. & Velázquez, Ramón, 2008. "International evidence on stochastic and deterministic monetary neutrality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1261-1275, November.
    9. R. Velazquez & Noriega & A., 2004. "International evidence on monetary neutrality under broken trend stationary models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 282, Society for Computational Economics.
    10. Nyong, M. O. & Udah, E. B., 2012. "Industrial Time Series of Nigeria, 1970-2009: Evolution and Unit Root Testing in the Presence of Multiple Endogenous Structural Breaks," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(1).
    11. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2008. "Are 19 Developed Countries' Real Per Capita GDP levels Non-stationary? A Revisit," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(2), pages 1-11.
    12. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Kelvin Siu Kei Wong & Patrick Wai Yin Cheung, 2007. "On the Stability of the Implicit Prices of Housing Attributes: A Dynamic Theory and Some Evidence," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 10(2), pages 66-93.
    13. Surajit Deb, 2003. "Terms of Trade and Supply Response of Indian Agriculture: Analysis in Cointegration Framework," Working papers 115, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    14. Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David H., 1995. "The great wars, the great crash, and steady state growth: Some new evidence about an old stylized fact," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 453-475, December.
    15. Kul B. Luintel, 2000. "Real exchange rate behaviour: evidence from black markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 161-185.
    16. Webster, Mort & Cho, Cheol-Hung, 2006. "Analysis of variability and correlation in long-term economic growth rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(5-6), pages 653-666, November.
    17. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:2:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Asmaa Ahmed, 2005. "Random Walks in the Economic Dynamic Series," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 78-100.
    19. Tang, Chor Foon, 2011. "Tourism, real output and real effective exchange rate in Malaysia: a view from rolling sub-samples," MPRA Paper 29379, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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