Spurious Cointegration: The Engle-Granger Test in the Presence of Structural Breaks
This paper analyses the asymptotic behavior of the Engle-Granger t-test for cointegration when the data include structural breaks, instead of being pure I(1) processes. We find that the test does not possess a limiting distribution, but diverges as the sample size tends to infinity. Calculations involving the asymptotic expression of the t-test , as well as Monte Carlo simulations, reveal that the test can diverge in either direction, making it unreliable as a test for cointegration, when there are neglected breaks in the trend function of the data. Using real data on car sales and murders in the US, we present an empirical illustration of the theoretical results.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990.
"Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration,"
Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
- Tom Doan, . "POTEST: RATS procedure to perform Phillips-Ouliaris-Hansen test for Cointegration," Statistical Software Components RTS00247, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "POTESTRESIDS: RATS procedure to perform Phillips-Ouliaris-Hansen test for Cointegration on 1st stage residuals," Statistical Software Components RTS00248, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Noriega, Antonio E. & Ventosa Santaulària, Daniel, 2005.
"Spurious regression under broken trend stationarity,"
58768, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2006. "Spurious Regression Under Broken-Trend Stationarity," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 671-684, 09.
- Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, 2005. "Spurious regression under broken trend stationarity," Department of Economics and Finance Working Papers EM200501, Universidad de Guanajuato, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia & Antonio E. Noriega, 2005. "Spurious regression under broken trend stationarity," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 186, Society for Computational Economics.
- Perron, Pierre & Zhu, Xiaokang, 2005. "Structural breaks with deterministic and stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 65-119.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985.
"Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
- Gonzalo, Jesus & Lee, Tae-Hwy, 1998.
"Pitfalls in testing for long run relationships,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 129-154, June.
- Graham Elliott, 1998. "On the Robustness of Cointegration Methods when Regressors Almost Have Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 149-158, January.
- Stephen Leybourne & Paul Newbold, 2003. "Spurious rejections by cointegration tests induced by structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 1117-1121.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001.
"LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power,"
Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2006-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dirección de Sistemas)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.