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Dynamic GMM Estimation With Structural Breaks. An Application to Global Warming and its Causes

  • Travaglini, Guido

In this paper I propose a nonstandard t-test statistic for detecting level and trend breaks of I(0) series. Theoretical and limit-distribution critical values obtained from Montecarlo experimentation are supplied. The null hypothesis of anthropogenic versus natural causes of global warming is then tested for the period 1850-2006 by means of a dynamic GMM model which incorporates the null of breaks of anthropogenic origin. World average temperatures are found to be tapering off since a few decades by now, and to exhibit no significant breaks attributable to human activities. While these play a minor causative role in climate changes, most natural forcings and in particular solar sunspots are major warmers. Finally, in contrast to widely held opinions, greenhouse gases are in general temperature dimmers.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 7108.

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Date of creation: 11 Feb 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:7108
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  1. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
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  7. Pierre Perron & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2005. "Estimating Deterministric Trends with an Integrated or Stationary Noise Component," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-037, Boston University - Department of Economics.
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  12. Noriega, Antonio E. & Ventosa Santaulària, Daniel, 2005. "Spurious regression under broken trend stationarity," MPRA Paper 58768, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  15. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  16. Vogelsang, Timothy J., 1997. "Wald-Type Tests for Detecting Breaks in the Trend Function of a Dynamic Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 818-848, December.
  17. Aditi Mehta & Marc Rysman & Tim Simcoe, 2006. "Identifying the Age Profile of Patent Citations," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-022, Boston University - Department of Economics.
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  23. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:6:p:818-49 is not listed on IDEAS
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