IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

International Evidence on Monetary Neutrality Under Broken Trend Stationary Models

  • R. Velazquez
  • A.E. Noriega
  • L.M. Soria

We analyze the issue of the impact of multiple breaks on monetary neutrality results, using annual data on real output and monetary aggregates for Argentina (1884-1996), Australia (1870-1997), Brazil (1912-1995), Canada (1870-2001), Italy (1870-1997), Mexico (1932-2000), Sweeden (1871-1988), and the UK (1871-2000). In particular, we empirically verify, whether neutrality propositions remain addressable (and if so, whether they hold or not), when unit root tests are carried out allowing for multiple structural breaks in the long-run trend function of the variables. It is found that conclusions on neutrality are sensitive to the number of breaks allowed. In order to interpret the evidence for structural breaks, we utilize a notion of deterministic monetary neutrality, which naturally arises in the absence of permanent stochastic shocks to the variables. We utilize a resampling procedure based on the fact that changes in the trend function bias unit root tests towards a non-rejection. In particular, using a dynamic programming algorithm to obtain global minimizers of the RSS for locating breaks, we simulate the distribution of the t-statistic for the null hypothesis of a unit root, under the hypotheses that the true models are both a Trend Stationary (TS) model with up to four structural breaks, and a Difference-Stationary (DS) model, both estimated from the data. We then compare the position where the sample estimate of the t-statistic for testing a unit root lies relative to the empirical densities of the t-statistic, under both the estimated TS and DS models. We present evidence in favour of models in which the cycle fluctuates in a stationary way around a broken trend. In other words, the (unit root) permanent stochastic changes vanish, giving rise to stationary behaviour affected by infrequent structural breaks. This leads to interesting questions about the testing for monetary neutrality, and allows us to introduce the concept of deterministic monetary neutrality.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://repec.org/esLATM04/up.7482.1080751251.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings with number 57.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:57
Contact details of provider: Phone: 1 212 998 3820
Fax: 1 212 995 4487
Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/pastmeetings.asp
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Cooper, Russell, 1994. "Equilibrium Selection in Imperfectly Competitive Economies with Multiple Equilibria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(426), pages 1106-22, September.
  2. Raj, Baldev, 1992. "International Evidence on Persistence in Output in the Presence of an Episodic Change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 281-93, July-Sept.
  3. Robert F. Engle & Sharon Kozicki, 1990. "Testing For Common Features," NBER Technical Working Papers 0091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
  5. Noriega, Antonio E. & de Alba, Enrique, 2001. "Stationarity and structural breaks -- evidence from classical and Bayesian approaches," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 503-524, December.
  6. Diebold, Francis X & Senhadji, Abdelhak S, 1996. "The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1291-98, December.
  7. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
  8. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  9. Frederick Wallace, 1999. "Long-run neutrality of money in the Mexican economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(10), pages 637-639.
  10. Blanchard, Olivier, 1997. "Is There a Core of Usable Macroeconomics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 244-46, May.
  11. Steven N. Durlauf, 1991. "Nonergodic Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Pantula, Sastry G., 1989. "Testing for Unit Roots in Time Series Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 256-271, August.
  13. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  14. Bae, Sang-Kun & Ratti, Ronald A., 2000. "Long-run neutrality, high inflation, and bank insolvencies in Argentina and Brazil," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 581-604, December.
  15. Arestis, Philip & Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal, Iris, 1999. "Unit roots and structural breaks in OECD unemployment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 149-156, November.
  16. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "Testing long-run neutrality," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 69-101.
  17. Schmidt, Peter & Phillips, C B Peter, 1992. "LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 257-87, August.
  18. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, June.
  19. James Bullard, 1999. "Testing long-run monetary neutrality propositions: lessons from the recent research," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 57-77.
  20. Vogelsang, T.J. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2001. "Testing for common deterministic trend slopes," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2001-16, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  21. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  22. Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May.
  23. Noriega, Antonio E., 2004. "Long-run monetary neutrality and the unit-root hypothesis: further international evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 179-197, August.
  24. Pollock, D. S. G., 2001. "Methodology for trend estimation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 75-96, January.
  25. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  26. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  27. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
  28. Serletis, Apostolos & Krause, David, 1996. "Empirical evidence on the long-run neutrality hypothesis using low-frequency international data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 323-327, March.
  29. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-20, July.
  30. SangKun Bae & Mark J. Jensen, 1998. "Long-Run Neutrality in a Long-Memory Model," Macroeconomics 9809006, EconWPA, revised 30 Sep 1998.
  31. Gottardi Piero, 1994. "On the Non-neutrality of Money with Incomplete Markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 209-220, February.
  32. Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 795R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 1987.
  33. Marty, Alvin L., 1994. "What is the neutrality of money?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 407-409, April.
  34. Duck, N W, 1992. "UK Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 426-39, July.
  35. Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1997. "Asymmetric business cycles: Theory and time-series evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 501-533, December.
  36. Hayakawa, Hiroaki, 1995. "The complete complementarity of consumption and real balances and the strong superneutrality of money," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 91-97, April.
  37. Startz, Richard, 1998. " Growth States and Shocks," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 203-15, September.
  38. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1990. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: a re-examination," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 139, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  39. Serletis, A & Moustas, Z, 1997. "International Evidence on the Neutrality of Money," Papers 9704, Calgary - Department of Economics.
  40. Grayham E. Mizon & David F. Hendry, 1998. "Exogeneity, causality, and co-breaking in economic policy analysis of a small econometric model of money in the UK," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 267-294.
  41. Lau, Sau-Him Paul, 1997. "Using stochastic growth models to understand unit roots and breaking trends," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(10), pages 1645-1667, August.
  42. Faria, Joao Ricardo, 2001. "Habit formation in a monetary growth model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 51-55, October.
  43. Kuo, Biing-Shen & Mikkola, Anne, 1999. "Re-examining long-run purchasing power parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 251-266, February.
  44. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:3:p:315-52 is not listed on IDEAS
  45. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
  46. Aggarwal, Raj & Montanes, Antonio & Ponz, Monserrat, 2000. "Evidence of long-run purchasing power parity: analysis of real asian exchange rates in terms of the Japanese yen," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 351-361, December.
  47. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  48. Culver, Sarah E. & Papell, David H., 1995. "Real exchange rates under the gold standard: can they be explained by the trend break model?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 539-548, August.
  49. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 315-352, June.
  50. Bental, Benjamin & Eden, Bemjamin, 1996. "Money and inventories in an economy with uncertain and sequential trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 445-459, June.
  51. Zelhorst, Dick & de Haan, Jakob, 1995. "Testing for a Break in Output: New International Evidence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(2), pages 357-62, April.
  52. Perron, Pierre & Zhu, Xiaokang, 2005. "Structural breaks with deterministic and stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 65-119.
  53. Haug, Alfred A & Lucas, Robert F, 1997. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 756-59, September.
  54. Meng, Qinglai, 2003. "Multiple transitional growth paths in endogenously growing open economies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 365-376, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:57. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.