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Stationarity, structural breaks, and economic growth in Mexico: 1895-2008

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  • Noriega Antonio E.
  • Rodríguez-Pérez Cid Alonso

Abstract

This paper shows that the evolution of the level of Mexico real and real per capita output between 1895 and 2008 can be adequately described through a trendstationary model, affected by 4 structural breaks, which occurred at dates that seem to coincide with domestic institutional arrangements, wars, and financial and economic crises. These changes are modeled through logistic smooth transition functions, in which transition periods are endogenously estimated. In terms of growth rates, our results indicate that for Mexico real and real per capita GDP, there are four stationary growth paths, separated by three transition periods. For instance, for real GDP we identify the following stationary growth paths: 1895-1924, 1935-1952, 1956-1978, and 1989-2008, separated by three transition periods: 1925-1934, 1953-1955, and 1979-1988.

Suggested Citation

  • Noriega Antonio E. & Rodríguez-Pérez Cid Alonso, 2011. "Stationarity, structural breaks, and economic growth in Mexico: 1895-2008," Working Papers 2011-11, Banco de México.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2011-11
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    File URL: https://www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-prensa/documentos-de-investigacion-del-banco-de-mexico/%7B6E8191E1-00D2-965E-9E14-DA4B1A4DF201%7D.pdf
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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