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Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: A Re-examination


  • Rudebusch, Glenn D


In their 1982 article, C. R. Nelson and C. I. Plosser provided evidence supporting the existence of an autoregressive unit root in a variety of macroeconomic time series. The author reexamines their evidence using small-sample distributions for various unit root test statistics. These distributions are calculated from specific null and alternative models (including median-unbiased models that correct for OLS coefficient bias) estimated from the data. Contrary to earlier assertions, the null and alternative models of many macroeconomic series provide very different characterizations of persistence but cannot be distinguished with unit root tests. Copyright 1992 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1992. "Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: A Re-examination," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(3), pages 661-680, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:33:y:1992:i:3:p:661-80

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. James J. Heckman, 1976. "The Common Structure of Statistical Models of Truncation, Sample Selection and Limited Dependent Variables and a Simple Estimator for Such Models," NBER Chapters,in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 475-492 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
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    4. Nijman, T.E. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 1989. "The nonresponse bias in the analysis of the determinants of total annual expenditures of households based on panel data," Discussion Paper 1989-36, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    5. Hausman, Jerry A & Wise, David A, 1979. "Attrition Bias in Experimental and Panel Data: The Gary Income Maintenance Experiment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 455-473, March.
    6. Charles F. Manski, 1989. "Anatomy of the Selection Problem," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 24(3), pages 343-360.
    7. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    8. Holly, Alberto, 1982. "A Remark on Hausman's Specification Test," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 749-759, May.
    9. Mizon, Grayham E, 1977. "Inferential Procedures in Nonlinear Models: An Application in a UK Industrial Cross Section Study of Factor Substitution and Returns to Scale," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(5), pages 1221-1242, July.
    10. Wansbeek, Tom & Kapteyn, Arie, 1989. "Estimation of the error-components model with incomplete panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 341-361, July.
    11. Baltagi, Badi H., 1985. "Pooling cross-sections with unequal time-series lengths," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(2-3), pages 133-136.
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