Smooth transition trends and labor force participation rates in the United States
This paper employs smooth transition trend models to investigate the long-run time series behavior of quarterly US labor force participation rates. In particular, we examine whether long-run growth in labor force participation rates can be modeled by smooth transitions between states rather than as abrupt mean level changes or as a stochastic trend. Smooth transitions permit for non-instantaneous adjustment of individual workers to changes associated with economic events or general labor market conditions. We employ unit root testing procedures with alternatives characterized by stationary fluctuations around one or two smooth transitions in linear trend. We examine labor force participation rates by gender- and age-specific groups. The results indicate that all female and most male participation series are better characterized as stationary processes that undergo transitional deterministics. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014
Volume (Year): 46 (2014)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: ++43 - (0)1 - 599 91 - 0
Fax: ++43 - (0)1 - 599 91 - 555
Web page: http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/00181/index.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://link.springer.de/orders.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jeremy Greenwood & Ananth Seshadri & Mehmet Yorukoglu, 2003.
"Engines of Liberation,"
RCER Working Papers
503, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Landajo, Manuel & Presno, María José, 2010. "Nonparametric pseudo-Lagrange multiplier stationarity testing," MPRA Paper 25659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Leybourne, Stephen J. & Mizen, Paul, 1999. "Understanding the disinflations in Australia, Canada and New Zealand using evidence from smooth transition analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 799-816, October.
- Luis A. Gil-Alana, .
"Fractional integration and structural breaks at unknown periods of time,"
Faculty Working Papers
16/06, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2008. "Fractional integration and structural breaks at unknown periods of time," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 163-185, 01.
- Jakob Madsen & Vinod Mishra & Russell Smyth, 2008. "Are Labour Force Participation Rates Non-Stationary? Evidence From 130 Years For G7 Countries ," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(2), pages 166-189, 06.
- Peracchi, Franco & Welch, Finis, 1994. "Trends in Labor Force Transitions of Older Men and Women," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 12(2), pages 210-42, April.
- Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003.
"Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
- Tom Doan, . "IPSHIN: RATS procedure to implement Im, Pesaran and Shin panel unit root test," Statistical Software Components RTS00098, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Greenaway, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Sapsford, David, 2000. "Smooth Transitions and GDP Growth in the European Union," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(2), pages 145-65, March.
- Julie L. Hotchkiss & John C. Robertson, 2012. "Asymmetric labour force participation decisions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(16), pages 2065-2073, June.
- Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001.
"Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root,"
Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November.
- Gustavsson, Magnus & Osterholm, Par, 2006. "The informational value of unemployment statistics: A note on the time series properties of participation rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 428-433, September.
- Murphy, Kevin M & Topel, Robert H, 1997. "Unemployment and Nonemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 295-300, May.
- Gustavsson, Magnus & Österholm, Pär, 2012.
"Labor-force participation rates and the informational value of unemployment rates: Evidence from disaggregated US data,"
Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 408-410.
- Gustavsson, Magnus & Österholm, Pär, 2010. "Labor-Force Participation Rates and the Informational Value of Unemployment Rates: Evidence from Disaggregated US Data," Working Paper Series 2010:14, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
- Gustavsson, Magnus & Österholm, Pär, 2010. "Labor-Force Participation Rates and the Informational Value of Unemployment Rates: Evidence from Disaggregated US Data," Working Paper 120, National Institute of Economic Research.
- Gustavsson, Magnus & Österholm, Pär, 2010. "Labor-Force Participation Rates and the Informational Value of Unemployment Rates: Evidence from Disaggregated US Data," Working Paper Series, Center for Labor Studies 2010:13, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
- Chinhui Juhn & Simon Potter, 2006. "Changes in Labor Force Participation in the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 27-46, Summer.
- Willem Van Zandweghe, 2012. "Interpreting the recent decline in labor force participation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 5-34.
- David Harvey & Terence Mills, 2002. "Unit roots and double smooth transitions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5), pages 675-683.
- Magnus Gustavsson & Pär Österholm, 2010. "The presence of unemployment hysteresis in the OECD: what can we learn from out-of-sample forecasts?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 779-792, June.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Vougas, Dimitrios V., 2006. "On unit root testing with smooth transitions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 797-800, November.
- Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
- Darby, Julia & Hart, Robert A. & Vecchi, Michela, 2001. "Labour force participation and the business cycle: a comparative analysis of France, Japan, Sweden and the United States," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 113-133, April.
- Robert Sollis, 2004.
"Evidence on purchasing power parity from univariate models: the case of smooth transition trend-stationarity,"
Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003
91, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Robert Sollis, 2005. "Evidence on purchasing power parity from univariate models: the case of smooth transition trend-stationarity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 79-98.
- John Dagsvik & Tom Kornstad & Terje Skjerpen, 2013.
"Labor force participation and the discouraged worker effect,"
Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 401-433, August.
- John K. Dagsvik & Tom Kornstad & Terje Skjerpen, 2010. "Labor force participation and the discouraged worker effect," Discussion Papers 642, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
- Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:46:y:2014:i:2:p:629-652. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn)or (Christopher F Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.