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The presence of unemployment hysteresis in the OECD: what can we learn from out-of-sample forecasts?

  • Magnus Gustavsson

    ()

  • Pär Österholm

    ()

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00181-009-0290-x
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 38 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 779-792

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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:38:y:2010:i:3:p:779-792
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  1. Carruth, A.A. & Hooker, M.A. & Oswald, A.J., 1998. "Unemployment Equilibria and Input Prices: Theory and Evidence from the United States," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 496, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  2. Golan, Amos & Perloff, Jeffrey M, 2002. "Superior forecasts of the U.S. unemployment rate using a nonparametric method," CUDARE Working Paper Series 956, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
  3. Philip Arestis & Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal, 2000. "OECD unemployment: structural breaks and stationarity," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 399-403.
  4. Magnus Gustavsson & P�R �Sterholm, 2007. "Does Unemployment Hysteresis Equal Employment Hysteresis?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(261), pages 159-173, 06.
  5. Roed, Knut, 1997. " Hysteresis in Unemployment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 389-418, December.
  6. Jorion, Philippe & Sweeney, Richard J., 1996. "Mean reversion in real exchange rates: evidence and implications for forecasting," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 535-550, August.
  7. Song, Frank M. & Wu, Yangru, 1998. "Hysteresis in unemployment: Evidence from OECD countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 181-192.
  8. Song, Frank M & Wu, Yangru, 1997. "Hysteresis in Unemployment: Evidence from 48 U.S. States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(2), pages 235-43, April.
  9. Murphy, Kevin M & Topel, Robert H, 1997. "Unemployment and Nonemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 295-300, May.
  10. David H. Papell & Christian J. Murray & Hala Ghiblawi, 2000. "The Structure of Unemployment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 309-315, May.
  11. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," Working papers 427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  12. Groenewold, Nicolaas & Hagger, A J, 2000. "The Natural Rate of Unemployment in Australia: Estimates from a Structural VAR," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(2), pages 121-37, June.
  13. Camarero, Mariam & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2004. "Hysteresis vs. natural rate of unemployment: new evidence for OECD countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 413-417, September.
  14. Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  15. Tsangyao Chang & Kuei-Chiu Lee & Chien-Chung Nieh & Ching-Chun Wei, 2005. "An empirical note on testing hysteresis in unemployment for ten European countries: panel SURADF approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(14), pages 881-886.
  16. Pierre Cahuc & André Zylberberg, 2004. "Labor Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026203316x, June.
  17. A. J. Hagger & Nicolaas Groenewold, 2003. "Time to Ditch the Natural Rate?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 79(246), pages 324-335, 09.
  18. Gottfries, Nils & Horn, Henrik, 1987. "Wage Formation and the Persistence of Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(388), pages 877-84, December.
  19. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Chen, Show-Lin, 2001. "Real Exchange-Rate Prediction over Short Horizons," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 401-13, August.
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