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The presence of unemployment hysteresis in the OECD: what can we learn from out-of-sample forecasts?

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  • Magnus Gustavsson

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  • Pär Österholm

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Suggested Citation

  • Magnus Gustavsson & Pär Österholm, 2010. "The presence of unemployment hysteresis in the OECD: what can we learn from out-of-sample forecasts?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 779-792, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:38:y:2010:i:3:p:779-792
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-009-0290-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Chen, Show-Lin, 2001. "Real Exchange-Rate Prediction over Short Horizons," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 401-413, August.
    2. Amos Golan & Jeffrey M. Perloff, 2004. "Superior Forecasts of the U.S. Unemployment Rate Using a Nonparametric Method," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 433-438, February.
    3. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    4. Alan A. Carruth & Mark A. Hooker & Andrew J. Oswald, 1998. "Unemployment Equilibria And Input Prices: Theory And Evidence From The United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 621-628, November.
    5. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Pierre Cahuc & André Zylberberg, 2004. "Labor Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026203316x, January.
    7. Jorion, Philippe & Sweeney, Richard J., 1996. "Mean reversion in real exchange rates: evidence and implications for forecasting," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 535-550, August.
    8. Magnus Gustavsson & Pär Österholm, 2007. "Does Unemployment Hysteresis Equal Employment Hysteresis?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(261), pages 159-173, June.
    9. Roed, Knut, 1997. " Hysteresis in Unemployment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 389-418, December.
    10. Groenewold, Nicolaas & Hagger, A J, 2000. "The Natural Rate of Unemployment in Australia: Estimates from a Structural VAR," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(2), pages 121-137, June.
    11. Gottfries, Nils & Horn, Henrik, 1987. "Wage Formation and the Persistence of Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(388), pages 877-884, December.
    12. Philip Arestis & Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal, 2000. "OECD unemployment: structural breaks and stationarity," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 399-403.
    13. Tsangyao Chang & Kuei-Chiu Lee & Chien-Chung Nieh & Ching-Chun Wei, 2005. "An empirical note on testing hysteresis in unemployment for ten European countries: panel SURADF approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(14), pages 881-886.
    14. Song, Frank M & Wu, Yangru, 1997. "Hysteresis in Unemployment: Evidence from 48 U.S. States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(2), pages 235-243, April.
    15. David H. Papell & Christian J. Murray & Hala Ghiblawi, 2000. "The Structure of Unemployment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 309-315, May.
    16. A. J. Hagger & Nicolaas Groenewold, 2003. "Time to Ditch the Natural Rate?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 79(246), pages 324-335, September.
    17. Murphy, Kevin M & Topel, Robert H, 1997. "Unemployment and Nonemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 295-300, May.
    18. Camarero, Mariam & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2004. "Hysteresis vs. natural rate of unemployment: new evidence for OECD countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 413-417, September.
    19. Song, Frank M. & Wu, Yangru, 1998. "Hysteresis in unemployment: Evidence from OECD countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 181-192.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pär Österholm, 2010. "Improving Unemployment Rate Forecasts Using Survey Data," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 16-26, Spring.
    2. Paraskevi Salamaliki & Ioannis Venetis, 2014. "Smooth transition trends and labor force participation rates in the United States," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 629-652, March.
    3. Niels Framroze Møller, 2013. "Understanding Unemployment Hysteresis: A system-based econometric approach to changing equilibria and slow adjustment," Discussion Papers 13-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    4. Melis Tartici, 2015. "A Reinvestigation of the Hysteresis Hypothesis in the OECD Countries," Econometrics Letters, Bilimsel Mektuplar Organizasyonu (Scientific letters), vol. 2(1), pages 22-40.

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    Keywords

    Unit root; Persistence; Labour market;

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