IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

A further investigation of unemployment persistence in European transition economies

  • Cuestas, Juan C.
  • Gil-Alana, Luis A.
  • Staehr, Karsten

This paper analyses the dynamics of the unemployment rate in the eight countries from Central and Eastern Europe which joined the EU in 2004. Unit root tests allowing for nonlinearities and structural changes suggest that the unemployment rate is not stationary in most of the sample countries. Tests allowing for fractional integration, however, reveal that shocks are highly persistent, implying a slow rate of convergence to the natural rate of unemployment. The unemployment rate is least persistent in Hungary and Slovenia, more persistent in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and the Baltic States and extremely persistent in Poland. The degree of persistence appears to reflect the different levels of economic and institutional development in the countries and possibly also the role of the government.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Comparative Economics.

Volume (Year): 39 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 514-532

in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:jcecon:v:39:y:2011:i:4:p:514-532
Contact details of provider: Web page:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Gil-Alana, Luis A, 2001. "A Fractionally Integrated Exponential Model for UK Unemployment," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 329-40, August.
  2. Ignacio N Lobato & Carlos Velasco, 2007. "Efficient Wald Tests for Fractional Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(2), pages 575-589, 03.
  3. Leon-Ledesma, Miguel & Peter McAdam, 2003. "Unemployment, Hysterisis and Transition," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 137, Royal Economic Society.
  4. Kew, Hsein & Harris, David, 2009. "Heteroskedasticity-Robust Testing For A Fractional Unit Root," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(06), pages 1734-1753, December.
  5. Song, Frank M & Wu, Yangru, 1997. "Hysteresis in Unemployment: Evidence from 48 U.S. States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(2), pages 235-43, April.
  6. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2008. "Unemployment Hysteresis in Transition Countries: Evidence using Stationarity Panel Tests with Breaks," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 620-635, 08.
  7. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2002. "Structural breaks and fractional integration in the US output and unemployment rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 79-84, September.
  8. Abadir, Karim M. & Distaso, Walter, 2007. "Testing joint hypotheses when one of the alternatives is one-sided," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 695-718, October.
  9. Brunello, G., 1989. "Hysteresis And The Japanese Unemployment Problem: A Preliminary Investigation," Papers 330, London School of Economics - Centre for Labour Economics.
  10. Camarero, Mariam & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluis & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2005. "Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for accession countries: A univariate approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 584-603, September.
  11. Luis Gil-Alana, 2001. "The persistence of unemployment in the USA and Europe in terms of fractionally ARIMA models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(10), pages 1263-1269.
  12. Zoega, Gylfi, 1994. "Unemployment Persistence: Does the Size of the Shock Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1082, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Dimitris K. Christopoulos & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2007. "Unemployment hysteresis in EU countries: what do we really know about it?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 80-89, May.
  14. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  15. Ewing, Bradley T. & Wunnava, Phanindra V., 2001. "Unit roots and structural breaks in North American unemployment rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 273-282, November.
  16. Demetrescu, Matei & Kuzin, Vladimir & Hassler, Uwe, 2008. "Long Memory Testing In The Time Domain," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(01), pages 176-215, February.
  17. Song, Frank M. & Wu, Yangru, 1998. "Hysteresis in unemployment: Evidence from OECD countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 181-192.
  18. Lee, Dongin & Schmidt, Peter, 1996. "On the power of the KPSS test of stationarity against fractionally-integrated alternatives," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 285-302, July.
  19. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  20. Boeri, Tito, 1997. "Learning from Transition Economies: Assessing Labor Market Policies across Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 366-384, December.
  21. Boeri, Tito & Garibaldi, Pietro, 2006. "Are labour markets in the new member states sufficiently flexible for EMU?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1393-1407, May.
  22. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  23. Bhargava, Alok, 1986. "On the Theory of Testing for Unit Roots in Observed Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 369-84, July.
  24. Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2004. "A joint test of fractional integration and structural breaks at a known period of time," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 691-700, 09.
  25. Pietro Garibaldi & Zuzana Brixiova, 1998. "Labor Market Institutions and Unemployment Dynamics in Transition Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 269-308, June.
  26. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2000. "Mean reversion in the real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 285-288, December.
  27. Andrew Clark, 2001. "Unemployment As A Social Norm: Psychological Evidence from Panel Data," DELTA Working Papers 2001-17, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  28. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," Working papers 427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  29. Frederic Bec & Melika Ben Salem & Marine Carrasco, 2004. "Tests for Unit-Root versus Threshold Specification With an Application to the Purchasing Power Parity Relationship," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 382-395, October.
  30. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2006. "Is the NAIRU theory a Monetarist, New Keynesian, Post Keynesian or a Marxist theory?," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp096, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
  31. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2010. "Phillips Curves And Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique And A Holistic Perspective," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 1-51, 02.
  32. Philippe Egoumé-Bossogo & Jerald Alan Schiff & Miho Ihara & Tetsuya Konuki & Kornélia Krajnyák, 2006. "Labor Market Performance in Transition: The Experience of Central and Eastern European Countries," IMF Occasional Papers 248, International Monetary Fund.
  33. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
  34. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Javier Ordóñez, 2009. "Unemployment and common smooth transition trends in Central and Eastern European Countries," Working Papers 2009/5, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.
  35. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1994. "On the power of unit root tests against fractional alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-5, May.
  36. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
  37. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Harrison, Barry, 2010. "Inflation persistence and nonlinearities in Central and Eastern European countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 81-83, February.
  38. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
  39. Robinson Kruse, 2011. "A new unit root test against ESTAR based on a class of modified statistics," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 71-85, February.
  40. David H. Papell & Christian J. Murray & Hala Ghiblawi, 2000. "The Structure of Unemployment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 309-315, May.
  41. Arestis, Philip & Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal, Iris, 1999. "Unit roots and structural breaks in OECD unemployment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 149-156, November.
  42. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
  43. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2008. "Unemployment hysteresis in OECD countries: Centurial time series evidence with structural breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 312-325, March.
  44. Hubert Gabrisch & Herbert Buscher, 2006. "The Relationship between Unemployment and Output in Post-communist Countries," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 261-276.
  45. Sandrine Cazes & Alena Nesporova, 2004. "Labour markets in transition: balancing flexibility and security in Central and Eastern Europe," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 91(5), pages 23-54.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jcecon:v:39:y:2011:i:4:p:514-532. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.