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Unemployment hysteresis, structural changes, non-linearities and fractional integration in Central and Eastern Europe

  • Juan Carlos Cuestas
  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

In this paper we aim to analyse the dynamics of unemployment in a group of Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). The CEECs are of special importance for the future of the European Union, given that most of them have recently become member states, and labour flows have been seen to rise with their accession. By means of unit root tests incorporating structural changes and nonlinearities, as well as fractional integration, we find that the unemployment rates for the CEECs are mean reverting processes, which is consistent with the NAIRU hypothesis, although shocks tend to be highly persistent.

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File URL: http://www.ntu.ac.uk/research/document_uploads/91190.pdf
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Paper provided by Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division in its series Working Papers with number 2009/6.

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Date of creation: Nov 2009
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Handle: RePEc:nbs:wpaper:2009/6
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.ntu.ac.uk/nbs

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  1. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Javier Ordóñez, 2009. "Unemployment and common smooth transition trends in Central and Eastern European Countries," Working Papers 2009/5, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.
  2. Marco Bianchi & Gylfi Zoega, 1996. "Unemployment persistence: Does the size of the shock matter?," Bank of England working papers 50, Bank of England.
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  4. Song, Frank M & Wu, Yangru, 1997. "Hysteresis in Unemployment: Evidence from 48 U.S. States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(2), pages 235-43, April.
  5. Lee, Dongin & Schmidt, Peter, 1996. "On the power of the KPSS test of stationarity against fractionally-integrated alternatives," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 285-302, July.
  6. Tito Boeri & Katherine Terrell, 2001. "Institutional Determinants of Labor Reallocation in Transition," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 384, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  7. Skalin, Joakim & Ter svirta, Timo, 2002. "Modeling Asymmetries And Moving Equilibria In Unemployment Rates," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(02), pages 202-241, April.
  8. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
  9. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, March.
  10. Leon-Ledesma, Miguel & Peter McAdam, 2003. "Unemployment, Hysterisis and Transition," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 137, Royal Economic Society.
  11. David H. Papell & Christian J. Murray & Hala Ghiblawi, 2000. "The Structure of Unemployment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 309-315, May.
  12. Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2004. "A joint test of fractional integration and structural breaks at a known period of time," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 691-700, 09.
  13. Song, Frank M. & Wu, Yangru, 1998. "Hysteresis in unemployment: Evidence from OECD countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 181-192.
  14. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2002. "Structural breaks and fractional integration in the US output and unemployment rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 79-84, September.
  15. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
  16. Arestis, Philip & Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal, Iris, 1999. "Unit roots and structural breaks in OECD unemployment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 149-156, November.
  17. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
  18. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
  19. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  20. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2000. "Mean reversion in the real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 285-288, December.
  21. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2008. "Unemployment Hysteresis in Transition Countries: Evidence using Stationarity Panel Tests with Breaks," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 620-635, 08.
  22. Andrew E. Clark, 2003. "Unemployment as a Social Norm: Psychological Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(2), pages 289-322, April.
  23. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Harrison, Barry, 2010. "Inflation persistence and nonlinearities in Central and Eastern European countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 81-83, February.
  24. Camarero, Mariam & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluis & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2005. "Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for accession countries: A univariate approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 584-603, September.
  25. Ewing, Bradley T. & Wunnava, Phanindra V., 2001. "Unit roots and structural breaks in North American unemployment rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 273-282, November.
  26. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
  27. Gil-Alana, Luis A, 2001. "A Fractionally Integrated Exponential Model for UK Unemployment," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 329-40, August.
  28. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1994. "On the power of unit root tests against fractional alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-5, May.
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