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Unemployment and common smooth transition trends in Central and Eastern European Countries

  • Juan Carlos Cuestas
  • Javier Ordonez

In this paper we analyse whether the apparent comovement of unemployment rates for some of the Central and Eastern EU new members can be explained by a common force, possibly linked to the process of economic integration. For this purpose we test for nonlinear unit roots as a first step to testing for common nonlinearities. Our results show that for five countries, out of eight, unemployment dynamics appear to be well described as a stationary process around highly persistent structural changes. Furthermore, we find evidence of a common nonlinear component driving the unemployment rates.

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Article provided by Economic Issues in its journal Economic Issues.

Volume (Year): 16 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (September)
Pages: 39-52

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Handle: RePEc:eis:articl:211bcuestas
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  1. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
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  8. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Fiscal Increasing Returns, Hysteresis, Real Wages and Unemployment," Working papers 429, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  9. David H. Papell & Christian J. Murray & Hala Ghiblawi, 2000. "The Structure of Unemployment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 309-315, May.
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  11. Camarero, Mariam & Ordonez, Javier, 2006. "Is there a nonlinear co-movement in the EU countries' unemployment?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 157-162, November.
  12. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2002. "Structural breaks and fractional integration in the US output and unemployment rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 79-84, September.
  13. Anderson, Heather M. & Vahid, Farshid, 1998. "Testing multiple equation systems for common nonlinear components," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 1-36, May.
  14. West, Kenneth D., 1987. "A note on the power of least squares tests for a unit root," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 249-252.
  15. Luis Gil-Alana, 2001. "Measuring unemployment persistence in terms of I(d) statistical models," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(12), pages 761-763.
  16. Camarero, Mariam & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluis & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2005. "Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for accession countries: A univariate approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 584-603, September.
  17. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2008. "Unemployment Hysteresis in Transition Countries: Evidence using Stationarity Panel Tests with Breaks," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 620-635, 08.
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