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Unemployment And Hysteresis: A Nonlinear Unobserved Components Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Alicia Pérez Alon

    () (Universidad de Alicante)

  • Silvestro Di Sanzo

    (Universidad de Alicante)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to find a possible hysteresis effect on unemployment rate series from Italy, France and the United States. We propose a definition of hysteresis taken from Physics which allows for nonlinearities. To test for the presence of hysteresis we use a nonlinear unobserved components model for unemployment series. The estimation methodology used can be assimilated into a threshold autoregressive representation in the framework of a Kalman filter. To derive an appropriate p-value for a test for hysteresis we propose two alternative bootstrap procedures: the first is valid under homoskedastic errors and the second allows for general heteroskedasticity. We investigate the performance of both bootstrap procedures using Monte Carlo simulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Alicia Pérez Alon & Silvestro Di Sanzo, 2005. "Unemployment And Hysteresis: A Nonlinear Unobserved Components Approach," Working Papers. Serie AD 2005-34, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  • Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasad:2005-34
    as

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    File URL: http://www.ivie.es/downloads/docs/wpasad/wpasad-2005-34.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 61-82, Suppl. De.
    3. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    4. Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam, 2004. "Unemployment, Hysteresis And Transition," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(3), pages 377-401, August.
    5. Hansen, Bruce E., 2000. "Testing for structural change in conditional models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 93-115, July.
    6. Mortensen, Dale T, 1989. " The Persistence and Indeterminancy of Unemployment in Search Equilibrium," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(2), pages 347-370.
    7. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    8. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    9. David H. Papell & Christian J. Murray & Hala Ghiblawi, 2000. "The Structure of Unemployment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 309-315, May.
    10. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Erratum: The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 195-198, March-Apr.
    11. Daniel S. Hamermesh & Gerard A. Pfann, 1996. "Adjustment Costs in Factor Demand," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 1264-1292, September.
    12. Sichel, Daniel E, 1989. "Are Business Cycles Asymmetric? A Correction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1255-1260, October.
    13. Robert B. Davies, 2002. "Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative: Linear model case," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 484-489, June.
    14. Jaeger, Albert & Parkinson, Martin, 1994. "Some evidence on hysteresis in unemployment rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 329-342, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Daouli, Joan & Demoussis, Michael & Giannakopoulos, Nicholas & Lambropoulou, Nikolitsa, 2015. "The ins and outs of Greek unemployment in the Great Depression," MPRA Paper 66299, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kostenko Elena & Kuznichenko Vladimir M. & Lapshyn Vladimir I., 2013. "Influence of external periodic and non-linear factors upon stability of economic systems," The Problems of Economy, RESEARCH CENTRE FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS of NAS (KHARKIV, UKRAINE), issue 2, pages 212-219.
    3. Canarella, Giorgio & Miller, Stephen M. & Nourayi, Mahmoud M., 2013. "Firm profitability: Mean-reverting or random-walk behavior?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 76-97.
    4. Di Sanzo Silvestro & Bella Mariano, 2015. "Public debt and growth in the euro area: evidence from parametric and nonparametric Granger causality," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 631-648, July.
    5. Emilio Congregado & Antonio Golpe & Simon Parker, 2012. "The dynamics of entrepreneurship: hysteresis, business cycles and government policy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 1239-1261, December.
    6. repec:spr:empeco:v:53:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1171-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:spr:italej:v:3:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s40797-017-0056-0 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hysteresis; Unobserved Components Model; Threshold Autoregressive Models; Nuisance parameters; Bootstrap;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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