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Unemployment And Hysteresis: A Nonlinear Unobserved Components Approach

  • Alicia Pérez Alon

    ()

    (Universidad de Alicante)

  • Silvestro Di Sanzo

    (Universidad de Alicante)

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    The aim of this paper is to find a possible hysteresis effect on unemployment rate series from Italy, France and the United States. We propose a definition of hysteresis taken from Physics which allows for nonlinearities. To test for the presence of hysteresis we use a nonlinear unobserved components model for unemployment series. The estimation methodology used can be assimilated into a threshold autoregressive representation in the framework of a Kalman filter. To derive an appropriate p-value for a test for hysteresis we propose two alternative bootstrap procedures: the first is valid under homoskedastic errors and the second allows for general heteroskedasticity. We investigate the performance of both bootstrap procedures using Monte Carlo simulation.

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    File URL: http://www.ivie.es/downloads/docs/wpasad/wpasad-2005-34.pdf
    File Function: Fisrt version / Primera version, 2005
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    Paper provided by Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie) in its series Working Papers. Serie AD with number 2005-34.

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    Length: 28 pages
    Date of creation: Dec 2005
    Date of revision:
    Publication status: Published by Ivie
    Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasad:2005-34
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    1. Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam, 2004. "Unemployment, Hysteresis And Transition," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(3), pages 377-401, 08.
    2. Jaeger, Albert & Parkinson, Martin, 1994. "Some evidence on hysteresis in unemployment rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 329-342, February.
    3. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," Working papers 427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    4. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    5. David H. Papell & Christian J. Murray & Hala Ghiblawi, 2000. "The Structure of Unemployment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 309-315, May.
    6. Dale T. Mortensen, 1988. "The Persistence and Indeterminacy of Unemployment in Search Equilibrium," Discussion Papers 810, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    7. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Erratum: The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 195-98, March-Apr.
    8. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S61-82, Suppl. De.
    9. Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    10. Robert B. Davies, 2002. "Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative: Linear model case," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 484-489, June.
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