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Unemployment and common smooth transition trends in Central and Eastern European Countries

  • Juan Carlos Cuestas
  • Javier Ordóñez

In the present paper we analyse the existence of common nonlinear trends in several of Central and Eastern European Countries in order to gain some insight about the degree of labour market integration within the area. In order to do so, we test for the order of integration of the unemployment rates, by applying the Leybourne et al. (1998) and Kapetanios et al. (2003) nonlinear unit root tests. Our results pinpoint the fact that five up to eight unemployment rates are stationary around a nonlinear trend and, by means of Anderson and Vahid (1998) approach, we also find that there is a common trend that drives the long run behaviour of that variable in these countries.

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File URL: http://www.ntu.ac.uk/research/document_uploads/87123.pdf
File Function: First version, 2009
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Paper provided by Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division in its series Working Papers with number 2009/5.

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Date of creation: Jul 2009
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Handle: RePEc:nbs:wpaper:2009/5
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.ntu.ac.uk/nbs

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  1. Andrew Clark, 2001. "Unemployment As A Social Norm: Psychological Evidence from Panel Data," DELTA Working Papers 2001-17, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  2. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," Working papers 427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  3. Leon-Ledesma, Miguel & Peter McAdam, 2003. "Unemployment, Hysterisis and Transition," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 137, Royal Economic Society.
  4. Franchi, Massimo & Ordóñez, Javier, 2008. "Common smooth transition trend-stationarity in European unemployment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 106-109, November.
  5. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Fiscal Increasing Returns, Hysteresis, Real Wages and Unemployment," Working papers 429, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  6. Tito Boeri & Katherine Terrell, 2002. "Institutional Determinants of Labor Reallocation in Transition," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 51-76, Winter.
  7. Camarero, Mariam & Ordonez, Javier, 2006. "Is there a nonlinear co-movement in the EU countries' unemployment?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 157-162, November.
  8. Camarero, Mariam & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluis & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2005. "Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for accession countries: A univariate approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 584-603, September.
  9. Luis Gil-Alana, 2001. "Measuring unemployment persistence in terms of I(d) statistical models," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(12), pages 761-763.
  10. David H. Papell & Christian J. Murray & Hala Ghiblawi, 2000. "The Structure of Unemployment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 309-315, May.
  11. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 1991. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198284345, March.
  12. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2008. "Unemployment Hysteresis in Transition Countries: Evidence using Stationarity Panel Tests with Breaks," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 620-635, 08.
  13. Anderson, Heather M. & Vahid, Farshid, 1998. "Testing multiple equation systems for common nonlinear components," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 1-36, May.
  14. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2002. "Structural breaks and fractional integration in the US output and unemployment rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 79-84, September.
  15. West, Kenneth D., 1987. "A note on the power of least squares tests for a unit root," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 249-252.
  16. Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Testing the unit root with drift hypothesis against nonlinear trend stationarity, with an application to the US price level and interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 29-64, November.
  17. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
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