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Long Memory in Turkish Unemployment Rates

Listed author(s):
  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

    ()

    (University of Navarra, Faculty of Economics and ICS, Pamplona, Spain)

  • Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir

    (Department of Economics, Gazi University, Economic Research Forum (ERF) Cairo)

  • Aysit Tansel

    (Middle East Technical University,IZA, Economic Research Forum (ERF) Cairo)

Registered author(s):

    In this paper we have examined the unemployment rate series in Turkey by using long memory models and in particular employing fractionally integrated techniques. Our results suggest that unemployment in Turkey is highly persistent, with orders of integration equal to or higher than 1 in most cases. This implies lack of mean reversion and permanence of the shocks. We found evidence in favor of mean reversion in the case of female unemployment and this happens for all the groups of non-agricultural, rural, urban and youth unemployment series. The possibility of non-linearities are observed only in the case of female unemployment and the degree of persistence is higher in the cases of female and youth unemployment series. Important policy implications emerge from our empirical results. Labor and macroeconomic policies will most likely have long lasting effects on the unemployment rates.

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    File URL: http://eaf.ku.edu.tr/sites/eaf.ku.edu.tr/files/erf_wp_1715.pdf
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    Paper provided by Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum in its series Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers with number 1715.

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    Length: 37 pages
    Date of creation: Sep 2017
    Handle: RePEc:koc:wpaper:1715
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