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Long Memory in Turkish Unemployment Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

    (University of Navarra, Faculty of Economics and ICS, Pamplona, Spain)

  • Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir

    (Department of Economics, Gazi University, Economic Research Forum (ERF) Cairo)

  • Aysit Tansel

    (Middle East Technical University,IZA, Economic Research Forum (ERF) Cairo)

Abstract

In this paper we have examined the unemployment rate series in Turkey by using long memory models and in particular employing fractionally integrated techniques. Our results suggest that unemployment in Turkey is highly persistent, with orders of integration equal to or higher than 1 in most cases. This implies lack of mean reversion and permanence of the shocks. We found evidence in favor of mean reversion in the case of female unemployment and this happens for all the groups of non-agricultural, rural, urban and youth unemployment series. The possibility of non-linearities are observed only in the case of female unemployment and the degree of persistence is higher in the cases of female and youth unemployment series. Important policy implications emerge from our empirical results. Labor and macroeconomic policies will most likely have long lasting effects on the unemployment rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis A. Gil-Alana & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Aysit Tansel, 2017. "Long Memory in Turkish Unemployment Rates," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1715, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    • Handle: RePEc:koc:wpaper:1715
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    File URL: http://eaf.ku.edu.tr/sites/eaf.ku.edu.tr/files/erf_wp_1715.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Murat Demirci & Meltem Poyraz, 2021. "A Practitioner’s Guide to Handling Irregularities Resulting from the 2014 Revisions to the Turkish Household Labor Force Survey," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 1-25.
    2. OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Robert Mudida, 2019. "Hysteresis of unemployment rates in Africa: new findings from Fourier ADF test," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(6), pages 2781-2795, November.
    3. Boughabi, Houssam, 2025. "Modeling Wage Expectations and Long-Memory Dynamics in the German Labor Market, 1914–1920," MPRA Paper 126295, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Shelton Peiris & Richard Hunt, 2023. "Revisiting the Autocorrelation of Long Memory Time Series Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-8, February.
    5. Sakiru Adebola Solarin & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Carmen Lafuente, 2020. "Persistence of the Misery Index in African Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 825-841, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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