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A Fractionally Integrated Exponential Model for UK Unemployment

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  • Gil-Alana, Luis A

Abstract

Fractionally integrated models with the disturbances following a Bloomfield (1973) exponential spectral model are proposed in this article for modelling UK unemployment. This gives us a better understanding of the low-frequency dynamics affecting the series without relying on any particular ARMA specification for its short-run components which, in general, require many more parameters to estimate. The results indicate that this exponential model, confounded with fractional integration, may be a feasible way of modelling unemployment. It also shows that its order of integration is much higher than one and thus leads to the conclusion that the standard practice of taking first differences may lead to erroneous results. Copyright © 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Gil-Alana, Luis A, 2001. "A Fractionally Integrated Exponential Model for UK Unemployment," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 329-340, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:20:y:2001:i:5:p:329-40
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    Cited by:

    1. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Aysit Tansel, 2017. "Long memory in Turkish Unemployment Rates," Working Papers 2017/5, Turkish Economic Association.
    2. Floros, Ch., 2005. "Forecasting the UK Unemployment Rate: Model Comparisons," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(4), pages 57-72.
    3. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Pedro Garcia-del-Barrio, 2006. "New Revelations about Unemployment Persistence in Spain," Faculty Working Papers 10/06, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    4. Cuestas, Juan C. & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Staehr, Karsten, 2011. "A further investigation of unemployment persistence in European transition economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 514-532.
    5. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2011. "Unemployment hysteresis, structural changes, non-linearities and fractional integration in European transition economies," Working Papers 2011005, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2011.
    6. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2009. "Unemployment hysteresis, structural changes, non-linearities and fractional integration in Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers 2009/6, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.

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