The Relationship between Unemployment and Output in Post-communist Countries
Unemployment is still disappointingly high in most Central and East European countries, which may be a reflection of the ongoing adjustment to institutional shocks resulting from systemic transition, or may be caused by high labour market rigidity or aggregate demand that is too weak. This article investigates the dynamics of unemployment and output in those eight post-communist countries which entered the EU in 2004. We use a model related to Okun's Law; i.e. the first differences in unemployment rates are regressed on GDP growth rates. We estimate country and panel regressions with instrument variables (TSLS) and apply some tests to the data and regression results. We assume transition of labour markets to be accomplished when a robust relationship exists between unemployment rate changes and GDP growth. Moreover, the estimated coefficients contain information about labour market rigidity and unemployment thresholds of output growth. Our results suggest that the transition of labour markets can be regarded as completed since unemployment responds to output changes and not to a changing institutional environment that destroys jobs in the state sector. The regression coefficients demonstrate that a high trend rate of productivity and a high unemployment intensity of output growth have been observable since 1998. Therefore, we conclude that labour market rigidities do not play an important role in explaining high unemployment rates. However, GDP growth is dominated by productivity progress and the employment-relevant component of aggregate demand is too low to reduce the high level of unemployment substantially.
Volume (Year): 18 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/CPCE20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/CPCE20|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Philippe Aghion & Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1994. "On the Speed of Transition Central Europe," NBER Working Papers 4736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Prachowny, Martin F J, 1993. "Okun's Law: Theoretical Foundations and Revised Estimates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 331-36, May.
- Mihails Hazans, 2003.
"Determinants of Inter-Regional Migration in the Baltic Countries,"
ERSA conference papers
ersa03p354, European Regional Science Association.
- Hazans, Mihails, 2003. "Determinants of inter-regional migration in the Baltic countries," ZEI Working Papers B 17-2003, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
- Micael Castanheira De Moura & Gérard Roland, 2000.
"The optimal speed of transition: a general equilibrium analysis,"
ULB Institutional Repository
2013/10011, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Castanheira, Micael & Roland, Gerard, 2000. "The Optimal Speed of Transition: A General Equilibrium Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(1), pages 219-39, February.
- Castanheira, Micael & Roland, Gérard, 1996. "The Optimal Speed of Transition: A General Equilibrium Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1442, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Nickell, S. & Layard, R., 1997.
"Labour Market Institutions and Economic Performance,"
23, Centre for Economic Performance & Institute of Economics.
- Nickell, Stephen & Layard, Richard, 1999. "Labor market institutions and economic performance," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 46, pages 3029-3084 Elsevier.
- Richard Layard & Stephen Nickell, 1998. "Labour Market Institutions and Economic Performance," CEP Discussion Papers dp0407, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Aghion, P. & Blanchard, O.J., 1993.
"On the Speed of Transition in Central Europe,"
93-8, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1997.
"What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter.
- Blanchard, O & Katz, L, 1996. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Working papers 96-29, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1996. "What We Know and Do Not Know About the Natural Rate of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 5822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Peter J Montiel & Eduardo Borensztein, 1991. "Savings, Investment, and Growth in Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 91/61, International Monetary Fund.
- Leopold Sogner & Alfred Stiassny, 2002. "An analysis on the structural stability of Okun's law--a cross-country study," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(14), pages 1775-1787.
- Robert Solow, 2000. "Unemployment in the United States and in Europe - A Contrast and the Reasons," CESifo Working Paper Series 231, CESifo Group Munich.
- Tito Boeri & Katherine Terrell, 2001.
"Institutional Determinants of Labor Reallocation in Transition,"
William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series
384, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Tito Boeri & Katherine Terrell, 2002. "Institutional Determinants of Labor Reallocation in Transition," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 51-76, Winter.
- Stephen Nickell, 1997. "Unemployment and Labor Market Rigidities: Europe versus North America," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 55-74, Summer.
- Camarero, Mariam & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluis & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2005. "Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for accession countries: A univariate approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 584-603, September.
- Kornai, J., 1993. "Transformational Recession; A General Phenomenon Examined Through the Example of Hangary's Development," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1648, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:pocoec:v:18:y:2006:i:3:p:261-276. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.