Okun's law - a meta analysis
This paper seeks to identify whether there is a representative empirical OkunÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Law coefficient (OLC) and to measure its size. We carry out a meta regression analysis on a sample of 269 estimates of the OLC to uncover reasons for differences in empirical results and to estimate the Ã¢â‚¬ËœtrueÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ OLC. On statistical (and other) grounds, we find it appropriate to investigate two separate subsamples, using respectively (some measure of) unemployment or output as dependent variable. Our results can be summarized as follows. First, there is evidence of type II publication bias in both sub-samples, but a type I bias is present only among the papers using some measure of unemployment as the dependent variable. Second, after correction for publication bias, authentic and statistically significant OLC effects are present in both sub-samples. Third, bias-corrected estimated true OLCs are significantly lower (in absolute value) with models using some measure of unemployment as the dependent variable. Using a bivariate MRA approach, the estimated true effects are -0.25 for the unemployment sub-sample and -0.61 for the output-sub sample; with a multivariate MRA methodology, the estimated true effects are -0.40 and -1.02 for the unemployment and the output-sub samples respectively.
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- Stanley, T.D. & Doucouliagos, Chris & Jarrell, Stephen B., 2008.
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- Paramsothy Silvapulle & Imad Moosa & Mervyn Silvapulle, 2004. "Asymmetry in Okun's law," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 353-374, May.
- Tomáš Havránek, 2010. "Rose effect and the euro: is the magic gone?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(2), pages 241-261, June.
- Havranek, Tomas, 2009. "Rose Effect and the Euro: Is the Magic Gone?," MPRA Paper 18479, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Nov 2009.
- T. D. Stanley, 2008. "Meta-Regression Methods for Detecting and Estimating Empirical Effects in the Presence of Publication Selection," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(1), pages 103-127, 02.
- T.D. Stanley, 2006. "Meta-Regression Methods for Detecting and Estimating Empirical Effects in the Presence of Publication Selection," Economics Series 2006_20, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
- T. D. Stanley, 2005. "Beyond Publication Bias," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 309-345, 07.
- Dany Lang & Christian de Peretti, 2009. "A strong hysteretic model of Okun's Law: theory and a preliminary investigation," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 445-462.
- Dany Lang & Christian De Peretti, 2009. "A strong hysteretic model of Okun’s Law: theory and a preliminary investigation," Post-Print hal-01366013, HAL.
- Brian Silverstone & Richard Harris, 2001. "Testing for asymmetry in Okun's law: A cross-country comparison," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(2), pages 1-13.
- Edward S. Knotek & II, 2007. "How useful is Okun's law?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 73-103.
- Ho-Chuan (River) Huang & Ya-Kai Chang, 2005. "INVESTIGATING OKUN's LAW BY THE STRUCTURAL BREAK WITH THRESHOLD APPROACH: EVIDENCE FROM CANADA," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(5), pages 599-611, 09. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)