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System Estimates of Cyclical Unemployment and Cyclical Output in the 15 European Union Member-States, 1961-1999

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  • Katos, A.
  • Pallis, D.
  • Katsouli, E.

Abstract

The purpose of this paper was to estimate cyclical unemployment and cyclical output in the 15 European Union member-states using a system of Phillips curve and Okun’s law equations. Treating both the NAIRU and the potential output growth rate as time varying unobserved stochastic processes, a state-space maximum likelihood estimation method - using Kalman filter where the state variables were random walks - was followed in order to estimate the 15 systems of equations. Overall, the estimated with the new approach systems of conditional equations suggested that the extent and direction of changes of cyclical unemployment and cyclical output over the period 1961-1999 is mixed across the 15 EU member states. The paper concludes that the application of “common” policies across the 15 EU member states may be questionable because of the different expected effects of these policies on the various economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Katos, A. & Pallis, D. & Katsouli, E., 2004. "System Estimates of Cyclical Unemployment and Cyclical Output in the 15 European Union Member-States, 1961-1999," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(4), pages 5-26.
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:ijaeqs:v:1:y2004:i:1_19
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Adamopoulos Antonios, 2019. "An empirical analysis of simulated model of economic growth for United Kingdom," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(3), pages 1-1.
    2. Roger Perman & Gaetan Stephan & Christophe Tavéra, 2015. "Okun's Law—a Meta-analysis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83(1), pages 101-126, January.
    3. Porras-Arena, M. Sylvina & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2023. "The heterogeneity of Okun's law: A metaregression analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    4. Thomas Obst, 2022. "Dynamic version of Okun’s law in the EU15 countries—The role of delays in the unemployment‐output nexus," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(2), pages 225-241, May.
    5. Roger, Perman & Gaetan, Stephan & Christophe, Tavéra, 2013. "Okun’s law – A meta analysis," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-59, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    6. Adamopoulos, Antonios, 2021. "A System Equation Model for Tourism and Economic Growth," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 74(3), pages 311-334.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips curve; Okun’s law; Kalman filter; Cyclical unemployment; Potential output growth rate; NAIRU; Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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