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Estimation of a Time Varying NAIRU for France

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  • Irac, D.

Abstract

Among several concepts encompassed by the idea of an equilibrium rate of unemployment (labour mismatch, unemployment trend, non inflationary unemployment, structural unemployment), the NAIRU appears as the most interesting one for a central bank since it focuses directly on inflation. Thus, the paper considers the reduced Phillips equation, assuming a stable relationship between inflation and some kind of demand disequilibrium index, as the most promising starting point to estimate an equilibrium rate of unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Irac, D., 2000. "Estimation of a Time Varying NAIRU for France," Working papers 75, Banque de France.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:75
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    File URL: https://publications.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/medias/documents/working-paper_75_2000.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
    6. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
    7. Eric Heyer & Hervé Le Bihan & Frédéric Lerais, 2000. "Relation de Phillips, boucle prix-salaire : une estimation par la méthode de Johansen," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 146(5), pages 43-60.
    8. P Clark & D Laxton, 1997. "Phillips Curves," CEP Discussion Papers dp0344, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    9. Manning, Alan, 1993. "Wage Bargaining and the Phillips Curve: The Identification and Specification of Aggregate Wage Equations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 98-118, January.
    10. Jaeger, Albert & Parkinson, Martin, 1994. "Some evidence on hysteresis in unemployment rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 329-342, February.
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    13. David Card, 1998. "Falling Union Membership and Rising Wage Inequality: What's the Connection?," NBER Working Papers 6520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Éric Heyer & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Variables observables et inobservables dans la théorie du taux de chômage d'équilibre. Une comparaison France/États-Unis," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(3), pages 593-603.
    2. Mabrouk Chetouane & Matthieu Lemoine & Marie-Elisabeth de la Serve, 2011. "Impact de la crise sur la croissance potentielle. Une approche par les modèles à composantes inobservables," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 89-112.
    3. repec:iab:iabmit:v:36:i:4:p:411-427 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Éric Heyer & Xavier Timbeau, 2002. "Le chômage structurel à 5 % en France ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 80(1), pages 115-151.
    5. Eric Heyer & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2004. "Observable and unobservable variables in the theory of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," Sciences Po publications n°2004-06, Sciences Po.
    6. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa : eine Bestandsaufnahme (Structural unemployment in Europe * an inventory)," Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 36(4), pages 411-427.
    7. Eric Heyer, 2010. "Efficacité de la politique économique et position dans le cycle: le cas de la défiscalisation des heures supplémentaires en France," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2010-26, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    8. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6706 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61ql8ubo is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Linzert, Tobias, 2005. "The Unemployment Inflation Trade-Off in the Euro Area," IZA Discussion Papers 1699, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    11. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2005 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa: Eine Bestandsaufnahme," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 389, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    13. Gian Luigi Mazzi & Frédéric Reynès & Matthieu Lemoine & Paola Veroni, 2008. "Real Time Estimation of Potential Output and Output Gap for the Euro-Area : Comparing Production Function with Unobserved Components and SVAR Approaches," Working Papers hal-01027422, HAL.
    14. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1904 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Jérôme Creel & Éric Heyer & Mathieu Plane, 2011. "Petit précis de politique budgétaire par tous les temps. Les multiplicateurs budgétaires au cours du cycle," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 61-88.
    16. Hervé Le Bihan, 2009. "1958-2008, avatars et enjeux de la courbe de Phillips," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(4), pages 81-101.
    17. Heyer, Eric & Reynes, Frederic & Sterdyniak, Henri, 2007. "Structural and reduced approaches of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 42-65, January.
    18. Lemoine, M. & de la Serve, M.E. & Chetouane, M., 2011. "Impact of the crisis on potential growth: An approach based on unobserved component models (in french)," Working papers 331, Banque de France.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation ; NAIRU ; : France ; Kalman filter;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

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