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Le taux de chômage d'équilibre. Discussion théorique et évaluation empirique

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  • Odile Chagny
  • Frédéric Reynès
  • Henri Sterdyniak

Abstract

This paper examines the notion of « equilibrium rate of unemployment » (ERU). An « asymmetric » wage-price setting based on a wage Phillips curve and on a price equation in level leads to a clear distinction between medium and long run ERU, as to a kind of reconciliation between WS/PS and Phillips models. This paper proposes medium and long run ERU estimates for six countries (France, Germany, United Kingdom, Netherlands, Spain and United States), incorporating institutional variables. The evolution of the medium run ERU explain relatively well those of the actual unemployment rate until the late eighties. In the nineties, the actual unemployment lies above its equilibrium level suggesting that a important part of the European unemployment is due to an excess supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Odile Chagny & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2002. "Le taux de chômage d'équilibre. Discussion théorique et évaluation empirique," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 81(2), pages 205-244.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_081_0205
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    1. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/5285 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2005 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Antoine Bouveret & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Les modèles de taux de change," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-01071965, HAL.
    4. Gian Luigi Mazzi & Frédéric Reynès & Matthieu Lemoine & Paola Veroni, 2008. "Real Time Estimation of Potential Output and Output Gap for the Euro-Area : Comparing Production Function with Unobserved Components and SVAR Approaches," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-01027422, HAL.
    5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2005 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1907 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Éric Heyer & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Variables observables et inobservables dans la théorie du taux de chômage d'équilibre. Une comparaison France/États-Unis," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(3), pages 593-603.
    8. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5285 is not listed on IDEAS

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