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Variables observables et inobservables dans la theorie du taux de chomage d’equilibre, une comparaison France/Etats-Unis

L’article compare deux stratégies d’estimation du taux de chômage d’équilibre (TCE). Selon l’approche réduite du TV-NAIRU, le TCE détermine directement l’inflation. Considéré comme inobservable, il suit un processus stochastique et est estimé par le filtre de Kalman à partir d’une courbe de Phillips réduite. Selon l’approche structurelle, le TCE est une pure construction théorique. Il n’est pas un déterminant direct de l’inflation mais est calculable à partir de l’observation du processus inflationniste. Ceci nécessite l’estimation d’un modèle structurel de formation des prix et des salaires (...).

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File URL: http://www.ofce.sciences-po.fr/pdf/dtravail/WP2004-03.pdf
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Paper provided by Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE) in its series Documents de Travail de l'OFCE with number 2004-03.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:0403
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