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Le Nairu en France : les insuffisances d'une courbe de Phillips

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  • Yannick L'Horty
  • Florence Thibault

Abstract

[fre] Le Nairu en France : les insuffisances d'une courbe de Phillips par Yannick L'Horty et Florence Thibault . La courbe de Phillips a longtemps été un instrument privilégié pour expliquer le lien entre salaire et chômage. Le niveau du Nairu qui lui est implicite fournit en théorie un guide précieux pour la politique économique permettant d' apprécier l' opportunité respective d'une politique d'offre ou de demande. Cet article rappelle dans un premier temps les fondements donnés à cette relation et ses principaux enjeux. En second lieu, il discute ses insuffisances dans un contexte où le taux de chômage se maintient durablement à un niveau élevé et souligne a contrario les avantages d'une représentation de type courbe de salaire en niveau. À titre d'illustration, une évaluation du Nairu français a été réalisée sur la base d'une boucle prix-salaire standard spécifiée en taux de croissance et sans terme de rappel, c'est-à-dire conformément à la pratique traditionnelle des modélisateurs. Le Nairu ainsi évalué ne présente pas de tendance à la hausse depuis 1970. Combinaison linéaire de variables stationnaires, il est lui-même une variable stationnaire et fluctue autour d'une constante qui correspond par construction au niveau moyen du chômage effectif. On ne dispose donc pas d'une mesure fiable du chômage d'équilibre permettant de satisfaire l'objectif initial de Phillips qui était de fonder l'intervention de politique économique. [eng] The NAIRU in France: The Shortcomings of a Phillips Curve by Yannick L'Horty and Florence Thibault . The Phillips curve has long been the preferred instrument for explaining the link between wages and unemployment. Its implicit NAIRU level theoretically provides a valuable guide for economic policy in that it can be used to assess the respective opportunities of supply policy and demand policy. The article opens with a review of this relation's given bases and its main implications. It then discusses its shortcomings in a situation where the unemployment rate remains sustainably high and goes on to highlight the advantages of a wage curve representation in level. As an example, an evaluation of the French NAIRU is made based on a standard price- wage loop specified in terms of growth rates without an error correction term, i.e. in line with standard modeling practice. The NAIRU thus evaluated shows no upward trend since 1 970. As a linear combination of stationary variables, it is itself a stationary variable and fluctuates around a constant that by definition corresponds to the average level of actual unemployment. Consequently, no reliable measure of equilibrium unemployment can be found to satisfy Phillips' initial aim, which was to justify the intervention of economic policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Yannick L'Horty & Florence Thibault, 1997. "Le Nairu en France : les insuffisances d'une courbe de Phillips," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 127(1), pages 83-99.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1997_num_127_1_5838
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1997.5838
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pierre Poret, 1990. "The "Puzzle" of Wage Moderation in the 1980s," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 87, OECD Publishing.
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    5. Gordon, Robert J, 1989. "Hysteresis in History: Was There Ever a Phillips Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 220-225, May.
    6. Alan Manning, 1992. "Productivity Growth, Wage Setting and the Equilibrium Rate of Unemployment," CEP Discussion Papers dp0063, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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    9. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Bean, Charles R, 1994. "European Unemployment: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 573-619, June.
    11. Reza Moghadam, 1994. "Why is Unemployment in France so High?," IMF Working Papers 94/58, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Sargent, Thomas J, 1978. "Estimation of Dynamic Labor Demand Schedules under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1009-1044, December.
    13. Manning, Alan, 1993. "Wage Bargaining and the Phillips Curve: The Identification and Specification of Aggregate Wage Equations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 98-118, January.
    14. Roy Cromb, 1993. "A Survey of Recent Econometric Work on the NAIRU," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 20(1/2), pages 27-51, January.
    15. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
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    17. Nickell, Stephen J, 1990. "Unemployment: A Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(401), pages 391-439, June.
    18. Joyce, Michael & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 1991. "The Role of the Real Exchange Rate and Capacity Utilisation in Convergence to the Nairu," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(406), pages 497-507, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Éric Heyer & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Variables observables et inobservables dans la théorie du taux de chômage d'équilibre. Une comparaison France/États-Unis," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(3), pages 593-603.
    2. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1631 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Frédéric Reynès, 2010. "The Phillips curve as a more general model than the Wage Setting curve," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2010-28, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    4. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2005 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Valérie Chauvin & Gaël Dupont & Éric Heyer & Mathieu Plane & Xavier Timbeau, 2002. "Le modèle France de l'OFCE. La nouvelle version : e-mod.fr," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 81(2), pages 245-300.
    6. Eric Heyer & Hervé Le Bihan & Frédéric Lerais, 2000. "Relation de Phillips, boucle prix-salaire : une estimation par la méthode de Johansen," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 146(5), pages 43-60.
    7. Baghli, M. & Brunhes-Lesage, V. & De Bandt, O. & Fraisse, H. & Villetelle, J-P., 2003. "Le modèle de prévision MASCOTTE pour l’économie française : principales propriétés et résultats de variantes," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 118, pages 63-86.
    8. François Legendre, 1999. "Qu'a-t-on appris sur le lien salaire/ emploi grâce à l'économétrie ?," Cahiers d'Économie Politique, Programme National Persée, vol. 34(1), pages 221-255.

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