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Hysteresis and Unemployment: a Preliminary Investigation

Author

Listed:
  • Rod Cross

    () (University of Strathclyde)

  • Julia Darby

    () (University of Glasgow)

  • Jonathan Ireland

    () (University of Strathclyde)

  • Laura Piscitelli

    () (University of Strathclyde)

Abstract

This paper elucidates hysteresis using a simple model of market entry and exit. A procedure for calculating hysteresis indices for economic time series is outlined. Some preliminary results assess the explanatory power of hysteresis variables in determining the equilibrium rate of unemployment in the UK. We find that natural and "unnatural" variables are involved in a cointegrating vector for UK unemployment over the period 1959-1996. The natural variable is the replacement ratio. The "unnatural" variables are the hysteresis indices for the exchange rate, the real oil price, and the real interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Rod Cross & Julia Darby & Jonathan Ireland & Laura Piscitelli, 1999. "Hysteresis and Unemployment: a Preliminary Investigation," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 721, Society for Computational Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf9:721
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Laura Piscitelli & Michael Grinfeld & Harbir Lamba & Rod Cross, 1999. "On entry and exit in response to aggregate shocks," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(9), pages 569-572.
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    3. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
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    5. Alogoskoufis, George S & Smith, Ron, 1991. "The Phillips Curve, the Persistence of Inflation, and the Lucas Critique: Evidence from Exchange-Rate Regimes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1254-1275, December.
    6. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters,in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rod Cross, 2014. "Unemployment: natural rate epicycles or hysteresis?," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 136-148, September.
    2. Angel Asensio & Dany Lang & Sébastien Charles, 2012. "Post Keynesian modeling: where are we, and where are we going to?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 393-412.
    3. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2008. "The Rise and Fall of Spanish Unemployment: A Chain Reaction Theory Perspective," Working Papers 633, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    4. Paulo Mota & José Varejão & Paulo Vasconcelos, 2015. "A hysteresis model-based indicator for employment adjustment rigidity," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 547-569, August.
    5. Rod Cross & Douglas Strachan, 2001. "Three Pillars of Conventional Wisdom," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 181-200.
    6. Hughes Hallett, A. J. & Piscitelli, Laura, 2002. "Testing for hysteresis against nonlinear alternatives," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 303-327, December.

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