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Investment hysteresis and potential output: A post-Keynesian–Kaleckian agent-based approach

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  • Bassi, Federico
  • Lang, Dany

Abstract

This paper shows that negative economic shocks can have permanent effects on potential output—the amount that can be produced if the economy is at full capacity. In order to do so, we build an agent-based model of growth and distribution where heterogeneous firms adjust capital accumulation discontinuously because of sunk costs and of market constraints. This economy is characterized by a particular form of path dependency, “genuine hysteresis”: the most important temporary shocks affect potential output permanently. The results of the simulations implemented show indeed that austerity policies that trigger debt deleveraging, precautionary saving and wage tightening affect negatively the long-run path of the economy. As a matter of consequence, our paper sheds some light on issues that many European countries have been facing since 2008, and puts into question the possibility for most of these countries to reach the pre-crisis rates of growth. The most likely scenario for Europe in the upcoming decades is therefore a chronicle underutilization of fixed productive capacity and labour force.

Suggested Citation

  • Bassi, Federico & Lang, Dany, 2016. "Investment hysteresis and potential output: A post-Keynesian–Kaleckian agent-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 35-49.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:52:y:2016:i:pa:p:35-49
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.06.022
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    Cited by:

    1. Ítalo Pedrosa & Dany Lang, 2018. "Heterogeneity, distribution and financial fragility of non-financial firms: an agent-based stock-flow consistent (AB-SFC) model," Working Papers hal-01937186, HAL.
    2. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models Redux: New Developments and Challenges Ahead," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(1), pages 1-1.
    3. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-01314335 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Mellár, Tamás & Németh, Kristóf, 2018. "A kibocsátási rés becslése többváltozós állapottérmodellekben. Szuperhiszterézis és további empirikus eredmények
      [Estimating output gap in multivariate state space models. Super-hysteresis and furt
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 557-591.
    5. Paulo R. Mota & Paulo B. Vasconcelos, 2018. "Does the Deregulation of the Labour Market Reduce Employment Hysteresis? An Analysis in a Low Interest Rate Environment," FEP Working Papers 611, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    6. Bauermann, Tom, 2020. "Governmental policies to reduce unemployment during recessions: Insights from an ABM," Ruhr Economic Papers 847, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    7. Nishi, Hiroshi, 2020. "A two-sector Kaleckian model of growth and distribution with endogenous productivity dynamics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 223-243.
    8. G Dosi & M C Pereira & A Roventini & M E Virgillito, 2018. "Causes and consequences of hysteresis: aggregate demand, productivity, and employment," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(6), pages 1015-1044.
    9. Váry, Miklós, 2018. "A hiszterézis közgazdasági jelentőségéről posztkeynesi szemléletben
      [The economic relevance of hysteresis from a post-Keynesian perspective]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 1006-1047.
    10. Paulo R. Mota & Abel L. C. Fernandes & Paulo B. Vasconcelos, 2018. "Employment Hysteresis: An Argument For Avoiding Front-Loaded Fiscal Consolidations In The Eurozone," FEP Working Papers 610, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    11. Palley, Thomas, 2017. "A theory of economic policy lock-in and lock-out via hysteresis: Rethinking economists' approach to economic policy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 11, pages 1-18.
    12. Pascal Seppecher & Isabelle Salle & Dany Lang, 2016. "Is the Market Really a Good Teacher? Market Selection, Collective Adaptation and Financial Instability," GREDEG Working Papers 2016-15, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    13. Pascal Seppecher & Isabelle Salle & Dany Lang, 2019. "Is the market really a good teacher?," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 299-335, March.
    14. Emanuele Russo, 2017. "Harrodian instability in decentralized economies: an agent-based approach," LEM Papers Series 2017/17, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    15. Samitas, Aristeidis & Polyzos, Stathis & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2018. "Brexit and financial stability: An agent-based simulation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 181-192.
    16. Nishi, Hiroshi, 2020. "Income distribution, technical change, and economic growth: A two-sector Kalecki--Kaldor approach," MPRA Paper 101563, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Giovanni Dosi & Marcelo C. Pereira & Andrea Roventini & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2018. "Causes et consequences of hysteresis : aggregate demand, productivity and employment," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/4h9cnu4n2k8, Sciences Po.

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