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Hysteresis vs. Natural Rate of US Unemployment

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  • Ka Ming Cheng
  • Nazif Durmaz
  • Hyeongwoo Kim
  • Michael Stern

Abstract

This paper investigates the stochastic nature of the unemployment rate allowing for cross-section dependence from a panel of US state-level data. We employ the PANIC method to test the null of nonstationarity for the common and idiosyncratic components separately. We find significant evidence of a nonstationary common component when the data from the most recent recession are included. Even when stationarity is empirically supported, the bias-corrected half-life of the common component appears very long.

Suggested Citation

  • Ka Ming Cheng & Nazif Durmaz & Hyeongwoo Kim & Michael Stern, 2011. "Hysteresis vs. Natural Rate of US Unemployment," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2011-01, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
  • Handle: RePEc:abn:wpaper:auwp2011-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Andini, Corrado & Andini, Monica, 2015. "A Note on Unemployment Persistence and Quantile Parameter Heterogeneity," IZA Discussion Papers 8819, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    2. Donald Freeman, 2012. "On (Not) Closing the Gaps: The Evolution of National and Regional Unemployment Rates by Race and Ethnicity," The Review of Black Political Economy, Springer;National Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 267-284, June.
    3. repec:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:105-116 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Pikoko, Vuyokazi & Phiri, Andrew, 2018. "Is there hysteresis in South African unemployment? Evidence from the post-recessionary period," MPRA Paper 83962, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Aloy Marcel & Tong Charles Lai & Peguin-Feissolle Anne & Dufrénot Gilles, 2013. "A smooth transition long-memory model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 281-296, May.
    6. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel, 2013. "Persistence and non-linearity in US unemployment: A regime-switching approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 61-68.
    7. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2013. "Unemployment Rate Hysteresis and the Great Recession: Exploring the Metropolitan Evidence," Working papers 2013-19, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    8. Ifedolapo Olabisi Olanipekun & Seyi Saint Akadiri & Osundina Olawumi & Festus Victor Bekun, 2017. "Does Labor Market Hysteresis Hold in Low Income Countries?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 19-23.
    9. Bassi, Federico & Lang, Dany, 2016. "Investment hysteresis and potential output: A post-Keynesian–Kaleckian agent-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 35-49.
    10. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2013. "Modelling the behaviour of unemployment rates in the US over time and across space," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(22), pages 5711-5722.
    11. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman & M. Rose Olfert & Ying Tan, 2015. "When Spatial Equilibrium Fails: Is Place-Based Policy Second Best?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(8), pages 1303-1325, August.
    12. Marques, André M. & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu & Troster, Victor, 2017. "Unemployment persistence in OECD countries after the Great Recession," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 105-116.
    13. Rickard Sandberg, 2016. "Testing for unit roots in nonlinear heterogeneous panels with smoothly changing trends: an application to Scandinavian unemployment rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1053-1083, November.
    14. Annabelle Mourougane, 2017. "Crisis, potential output and hysteresis," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 149, pages 1-14.
    15. Furuoka, Fumitaka, 2014. "Unemployment hysteresis in Central Asia," MPRA Paper 60323, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Valadkhani, Abbas & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "Switching and asymmetric behaviour of the Okun coefficient in the US: Evidence for the 1948–2015 period," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 281-290.
    17. repec:eee:ecmode:v:69:y:2018:i:c:p:291-300 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Fumitaka Furuoka, 2015. "Electricity consumption and economic development in Asia: new data and new methods," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 29(1), pages 102-125, May.
    19. repec:spr:empeco:v:53:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1164-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:spr:empeco:v:53:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1196-z is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment Rate; Natural Rate Hypothesis; Hysteresis; PANIC; Cross-Section Dependence;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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