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A Century of Purchasing Power Parity Confirmed: The Role of Nonlinearity

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  • Kim, Hyeongwoo
  • Moh, Young-Kyu

Abstract

Taylor (2002) claims that Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) has held over the 20th century based on strong evidence of stationarity for century-long real exchange rates for 20 countries. Lopez et al. (2005), however, found much weaker evidence of PPP with alternative lag selection methods. We reevaluate Taylor’s claim by implementing a recently developed nonlinear unit root test by Park and Shintani (2005). We find strong evidence of nonlinear mean-reversion in real exchange rates that confirms Taylor’s claim. We also find a possible misspecification problem in using the ESTAR model that may not be detected with Taylor-approximation based tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Hyeongwoo & Moh, Young-Kyu, 2009. "A Century of Purchasing Power Parity Confirmed: The Role of Nonlinearity," MPRA Paper 17488, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:17488
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
    2. Taylor, Alan M, 2001. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 473-498, March.
    3. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
    4. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-1042, November.
    5. Bruce E. Hansen, 1999. "The Grid Bootstrap And The Autoregressive Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 594-607, November.
    6. Joon Y. Park & Mototsugu Shintani, 2016. "Testing For A Unit Root Against Transitional Autoregressive Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57, pages 635-664, May.
    7. Seo, Myung Hwan, 2008. "Unit Root Test In A Threshold Autoregression: Asymptotic Theory And Residual-Based Block Bootstrap," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(06), pages 1699-1716, December.
    8. Obstfeld, Maurice & Taylor, Alan M., 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 441-479, December.
    9. George Kapetanios & Yongcheol Shin, 2006. "Unit root tests in three-regime SETAR models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 9(2), pages 252-278, July.
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    11. Harris, R. I. D., 1992. "Testing for unit roots using the augmented Dickey-Fuller test : Some issues relating to the size, power and the lag structure of the test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 381-386, April.
    12. Lopez, Claude & Murray, Christian J & Papell, David H, 2005. "State of the Art Unit Root Tests and Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 361-369, April.
    13. Frederic Bec & Melika Ben Salem & Marine Carrasco, 2004. "Tests for Unit-Root versus Threshold Specification With an Application to the Purchasing Power Parity Relationship," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 382-395, October.
    14. Pippenger, Michael K & Goering, Gregory E, 1993. "A Note on the Empirical Power of Unit Root Tests under Threshold Processes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(4), pages 473-481, November.
    15. Crucini, Mario J. & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2008. "Persistence in law of one price deviations: Evidence from micro-data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 629-644, April.
    16. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-879, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Ryu, Deockhyun, 2015. "Measuring the speed of convergence of stock prices: A nonparametric and nonlinear approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 227-241.
    2. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Ryu, Deockhyun, 2015. "A nonparametric study of real exchange rate persistence over a century," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 406-418.
    3. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Kim, Jintae, 2018. "London calling: Nonlinear mean reversion across national stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 265-277.
    4. Robert Kelm, 2017. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle and Imperfect Knowledge: The Case of the Polish Zloty," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, March.
    5. Frederick Wallace, 2013. "Cointegration tests of purchasing power parity," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 149(4), pages 779-802, December.
    6. Ntokozo Patrick Nzimande & Marcel Kohler, 2016. "On the Validity of Purchasing Power Parity: Evidence from Energy Exporting Sub-Saharan Africa Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 66(3), pages 71-82, July-Sept.
    7. repec:eei:journl:v:60:y:2017:i:2:p:14-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:bok:journl:v:18:y:2012:i:4:p:1-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Suvankulov, Farrukh & Su, Yongyang & Chau, Frankie, 2012. "Some cautions on the use of nonlinear panel unit root tests: Evidence from a modified series-specific non-linear panel unit-root test," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 810-816.
    10. Phiri, Andrew, 2014. "Purchasing power parity (PPP) between South Africa and her main currency exchange partners: Evidence from asymmetric unit root tests and threshold co-integration analysis," MPRA Paper 53659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Andrew Phiri, 2017. "Nonlinear adjustment effects in the purchasing power parity," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 60(2), pages 14-38.
    12. Hyeongwoo Kim & Young-Kyu Moh, 2012. "The Yen Real Exchange Rate May Not be Stationary After All: New Evidence from Non-linear Unit-Root Tests," Economic Analysis (Quarterly), Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea, vol. 18(4), pages 1-22, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Purchasing Power Parity; Transition Autoregressive Process; inf-t Unit Root Test;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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