Hysteresis vs. natural rate of US unemployment
This paper investigates the stochastic nature of the unemployment rate allowing for cross-section dependence from a panel of US state-level data. We first employ the PANIC method to identify the common and idiosyncratic components. Powerful recursive mean adjustment (RMA) methods are used to test for unit roots. We find significant evidence of a nonstationary common component when the data from the most recent recession are included. Even when stationarity is empirically supported, the bias-corrected half-life of the common component appears very long, casting doubt on the usefulness of the natural rate hypothesis.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Perron, P., 1986.
"Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Further Evidence From a New Approach,"
Cahiers de recherche
8650, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Perron, Pierre, 1988. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series : Further evidence from a new approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 297-332.
- Kim, Hyeongwoo & Stern, Liliana V. & Stern, Michael L., 2010. "Half-life bias correction and the G7 stock markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 1-3, October.
- Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003.
"Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
- Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Tom Doan, . "IPSHIN: RATS procedure to implement Im, Pesaran and Shin panel unit root test," Statistical Software Components RTS00098, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004.
"A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration,"
Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, 07.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 519, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001. "A Panic Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Economics Working Paper Archive 469, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986.
"Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem,"
427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000.
"Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
1504, Econometric Society.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 440, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987.
"Hysteresis in unemployment,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
- Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
- Zhije Xiao & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1998.
"An ADF coefficient test for a unit root in ARMA models of unknown order with empirical applications to the US economy,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(RegularPa), pages 27-43.
- Zhijie Xiao & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1997. "An ADF Coefficient Test for a Unit Root in ARMA Models of Unknown Order with Empirical Applications to the U.S. Economy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1161, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kim, Hyeongwoo & Moh, Young-Kyu, 2010.
"Examining the Evidence of Purchasing Power Parity by Recursive Mean Adjustment,"
22712, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kim, Hyeongwoo & Moh, Young-Kyu, 2012. "Examining the evidence of purchasing power parity by recursive mean adjustment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1850-1857.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Young-Kyu Moh, 2010. "Examining the Evidence of Purchasing Power Parity by Recursive Mean Adjustment," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2010-08, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- Brunello, Giorgio, 1990.
"Hysteresis and "The Japanese Unemployment Problem": A Preliminary Investigation,"
Oxford Economic Papers,
Oxford University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 483-500, July.
- Brunello, G., 1989. "Hysteresis And The Japanese Unemployment Problem: A Preliminary Investigation," Papers 330, London School of Economics - Centre for Labour Economics.
- So, Beong Soo & Shin, Dong Wan, 1999. "Recursive mean adjustment in time-series inferences," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 65-73, May.
- Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
- Song, Frank M & Wu, Yangru, 1997. "Hysteresis in Unemployment: Evidence from 48 U.S. States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(2), pages 235-43, April.
- Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002.
"Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
- Tom Doan, . "LEVINLIN: RATS procedure to perform Levin-Lin-Chu test for unit roots in panel data," Statistical Software Components RTS00242, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Pesaran, M.H., 2003.
"A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
0346, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
- Harris, Richard D. F. & Tzavalis, Elias, 1999.
"Inference for unit roots in dynamic panels where the time dimension is fixed,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 201-226, August.
- Tom Doan, . "HTUNIT: RATS procedure to implement Harris-Tzavalis unit root test for panel data," Statistical Software Components RTS00092, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Christopoulos, Dimitris K. & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2004. "Financial development and economic growth: evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 55-74, February.
- Leon-Ledesma, Miguel A, 2002. "Unemployment Hysteresis in the US States and the EU: A Panel Approach," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 95-103, April.
- Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Dynamic panel estimation and homogeneity testing under cross section dependence *," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 217-259, 06.
- Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
- Roed, Knut, 1996. "Unemployment Hysteresis--Macro Evidence from 16 OECD Countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 589-600.
- Chi-Young Choi & Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2010. "Bias Reduction in Dynamic Panel Data Models by Common Recursive Mean Adjustment," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(5), pages 567-599, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:2:p:428-434. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.