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Hysteresis vs. natural rate of US unemployment

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  • Cheng, Ka Ming
  • Durmaz, Nazif
  • Kim, Hyeongwoo
  • Stern, Michael L.

Abstract

This paper investigates the stochastic nature of the unemployment rate allowing for cross-section dependence from a panel of US state-level data. We first employ the PANIC method to identify the common and idiosyncratic components. Powerful recursive mean adjustment (RMA) methods are used to test for unit roots. We find significant evidence of a nonstationary common component when the data from the most recent recession are included. Even when stationarity is empirically supported, the bias-corrected half-life of the common component appears very long, casting doubt on the usefulness of the natural rate hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheng, Ka Ming & Durmaz, Nazif & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Stern, Michael L., 2012. "Hysteresis vs. natural rate of US unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 428-434.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:2:p:428-434
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2011.11.012
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    2. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel, 2013. "Persistence and non-linearity in US unemployment: A regime-switching approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 61-68.
    3. Rickard Sandberg, 2016. "Testing for unit roots in nonlinear heterogeneous panels with smoothly changing trends: an application to Scandinavian unemployment rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1053-1083, November.
    4. Ifedolapo Olabisi Olanipekun & Seyi Saint Akadiri & Osundina Olawumi & Festus Victor Bekun, 2017. "Does Labor Market Hysteresis Hold in Low Income Countries?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 19-23.
    5. Marques, André M. & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu & Troster, Victor, 2017. "Unemployment persistence in OECD countries after the Great Recession," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 105-116.
    6. Vuyo Pikoko & Andrew Phiri, 2018. "Is there hysteresis in South African unemployment? Evidence form the post-recessionary period," Working Papers 1803, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University, revised Jan 2018.
    7. Annabelle Mourougane, 2017. "Crisis, potential output and hysteresis," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 149, pages 1-14.
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    9. Andini, Corrado & Andini, Monica, 2015. "A Note on Unemployment Persistence and Quantile Parameter Heterogeneity," IZA Discussion Papers 8819, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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    15. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2013. "Unemployment Rate Hysteresis and the Great Recession: Exploring the Metropolitan Evidence," Working papers 2013-19, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    16. Furuoka, Fumitaka, 2014. "Unemployment hysteresis in Central Asia," MPRA Paper 60323, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2013. "Modelling the behaviour of unemployment rates in the US over time and across space," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(22), pages 5711-5722.
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    20. Fumitaka Furuoka, 2015. "Electricity consumption and economic development in Asia: new data and new methods," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 29(1), pages 102-125, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment rate; Natural rate hypothesis; Hysteresis; PANIC; RMA; Cross-section dependence;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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