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3-Regime symmetric STAR modeling and exchange rate reversion


  • Mario Cerrato
  • Hyunsok Kim
  • Ronald MacDonald


The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system and the adoption of generalised floating exchange rates ushered in a new era of exchange rate volatility and uncer­tainty. This increased volatility lead economists to search for economic models able to describe observed exchange rate behavior. In the present paper we propose more general STAR transition functions which encompass both threshold nonlinearity and asymmetric effects. Our framework allows for a gradual adjustment from one regime to another, and considers threshold effects by encompassing other existing models, such as TAR models. We apply our methodology to three different exchange rate data-sets, one for developing countries, and official nominal exchange rates, and the second for emerging market economies using black market exchange rates and the third for OECD economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Cerrato & Hyunsok Kim & Ronald MacDonald, 2008. "3-Regime symmetric STAR modeling and exchange rate reversion," Working Papers 2009_05, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Feb 2009.
  • Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2009_05

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item


    unit root tests; threshold autoregressive models; purchasing power parity.;

    JEL classification:

    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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