Forecasting exchange rates: Non-linear adjustment and time-varying equilibrium
By linking two main strands of equilibrium exchange rate research, this paper models and forecasts exchange rate movements around a time-varying equilibrium using both linear and non-linear techniques. Our results support evidence of linear and non-linear (ESTR) stationary behaviour around a time-varying equilibrium, particularly when using a trade based price index. The latter results are largely robust across a break due to the Plaza Accord. Forecasts of both the equilibrium deviations and exchange rates themselves are largely supportive of the ESTR model over several alternatives. This is notably so across most measures with respect to the equilibrium deviations and over the sign based measures for the exchange rate forecasts. Overall, our results suggest that short-run changes in exchange rates are forecastable when allowing for a time-varying equilibrium rate and using an appropriate price index. Such a result has important implications for researchers, policy-makers and goods and financial market participants. For example, policy-makers need to be cognisant of a changing equilibrium level and not necessarily conduct policy in such a manner as to restore a previous equilibrium. Similarly, those engaged in hedging need to be aware that equilibrium rates are time varying but, beneficially, movements around equilibrium appear predictable.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 20 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem & Marine Carrasco, 2009.
"Detecting Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates from a Multiple Regime STAR Model,"
CIRANO Working Papers
- Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem & Marine Carrasco, 2010. "Detecting Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates from a Multiple Regime star Model," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 99-100, pages 395-427.
- Frederique Bec & Melika Ben Salem & Marine Carrasco, 2004. "Detecting Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates from a Multiple Regime STAR Model," RCER Working Papers 509, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem & Marine Carrasco, 2010. "Detecting Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates from a Multiple Regime STAR Model," Post-Print hal-00685810, HAL.
- Simpson, Marc W., 2004. "Selectively hedging the US dollar with foreign exchange futures contracts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 75-86, February.
- Ivan Paya & Ioannis A. Venetis & David A. Peel, 2003. "Further Evidence on PPP Adjustment Speeds: the Case of Effective Real Exchange Rates and the EMS," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(4), pages 421-437, 09.
- Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
- Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
- Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001.
"Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-1042, November.
- Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Craig S. Hakkio, 1992. "Is purchasing power parity a useful guide to the dollar?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 37-51.
- Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
- McMillan, David G., 2009. "The confusing time-series behaviour of real exchange rates: Are asymmetries important?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 692-711, October.
- Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001.
"Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2913, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 1-5.
- Robert Sollis, 2005.
"Evidence on purchasing power parity from univariate models: the case of smooth transition trend-stationarity,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 79-98.
- Robert Sollis, 2004. "Evidence on purchasing power parity from univariate models: the case of smooth transition trend-stationarity," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 91, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Kim, Yoonbai, 1990. "Purchasing power parity : Another look at the long-run data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 339-344, April.
- Grossmann, Axel & Simpson, Marc W. & Brown, Cynthia J., 2009. "The impact of deviation from relative purchasing power parity equilibrium on U.S. foreign direct investment," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 521-550, May.
- Xu, Zhenhui, 2003. "Purchasing power parity, price indices, and exchange rate forcasts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 105-130, February.
- Ken Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, "undated".
"Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates,"
32027, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier.
- Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994. "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sven W. Arndt & J. David Richardson, 1987. "Real-Financial Linkages Among Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 2230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sollis, Robert & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 2002. "Tests for Symmetric and Asymmetric Nonlinear Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 686-700, August.
- Morey, Matthew R. & Simpson, Marc W., 2001. "To hedge or not to hedge: the performance of simple strategies for hedging foreign exchange risk," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 213-223, April.
- Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997.
"Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-879, August.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Michael-Nobay-Peel ESTAR models," Statistical Software Components RTZ00113, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Enders, Walter, 1988. "ARIMA and Cointegration Tests of PPP under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(3), pages 504-508, August.
- Mark, Nelson C., 1990. "Real and nominal exchange rates in the long run: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 115-136, February.
- Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2006. "Testing For Cointegration In Nonlinear Smooth Transition Error Correction Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(02), pages 279-303, April.
- I Paya & D Peel, 2006.
"On the relationship between Nominal Exchange Rates and domestic and foreign prices,"
577409, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
- Ivan Paya & David Peel, 2007. "On the relationship between nominal exchange rates and domestic and foreign prices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 105-117.
- Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-180.
- Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:20:y:2010:i:4:p:436-450. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.