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Temporal Aggregation Of An Estar Process: Some Implications For Purchasing Power Parity Adjustment

Author

Listed:
  • Ivan Paya

    () (Universidad de Alicante)

  • David A. Peel

    (University Management School)

Abstract

Nonlinear models of deviations from PPP have recently provided an important, theoretically well motivated, contribution to the PPP puzzle. Most of these studies use temporally aggregated data to empirically estimate the nonlinear models. As noted by Taylor (2001), if the true DGP is nonlinear, the temporally aggregated data could exhibit misleading properties regarding the adjustment speeds. We examine the effects of different levels of temporal aggregation on\ estimates of ESTAR models of real exchange rates. Our Monte Carlo results show that temporal aggregation does not imply the disappearance of nonlinearity and that adjustment speeds are significantly slower in temporally aggregated data than in the true DGP. Furthermore, the autoregressive structure of some monthly ESTAR estimates found in the literature is suggestive that adjustment speeds are even faster than implied by the monthly estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2004. "Temporal Aggregation Of An Estar Process: Some Implications For Purchasing Power Parity Adjustment," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-25, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  • Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasad:2004-25
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. JamesR. Lothian & MarkP. Taylor, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries: How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1742-1763, October.
    2. Diebold, Francis X & Husted, Steven & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Real Exchange Rates under the Gold Standard," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1252-1271, December.
    3. Ivan Paya & Ioannis A. Venetis & David A. Peel, 2003. "Further Evidence on PPP Adjustment Speeds: the Case of Effective Real Exchange Rates and the EMS," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(4), pages 421-437, September.
    4. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    5. Taylor, Alan M, 2001. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 473-498, March.
    6. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-1042, November.
    7. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 59-75.
    8. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 85-107.
    9. Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2004. "Nonlinear Ppp Under The Gold Standard," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-24, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    10. Byers, J D & Peel, D A, 2000. "Non-linear Dynamics of Inflation in High Inflation Economies," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(0), pages 23-37, Supplemen.
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    12. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1993. "Nonlinear Dynamic Structures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 871-907, July.
    13. I Paya & D Peel, 2005. "A new analysis of the determinants of the real dollar-sterling exchange rate: 1871-1994," Working Papers 565953, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
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    15. Pippenger, Michael K & Goering, Gregory E, 1993. "A Note on the Empirical Power of Unit Root Tests under Threshold Processes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(4), pages 473-481, November.
    16. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February.
    17. Murray, Christian J. & Papell, David H., 2002. "The purchasing power parity persistence paradigm," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19, January.
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    21. Ivan Paya & David Peel, 2007. "On the relationship between nominal exchange rates and domestic and foreign prices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 105-117.
    22. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-180.
    23. Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John T. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2001. "Nonlinear adjustment to purchasing power parity in the post-Bretton Woods era," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 379-399, June.
    24. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "A Fractional Cointegration Analysis of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 103-112, January.
    25. Tse, Yiuman, 2001. "Index arbitrage with heterogeneous investors: A smooth transition error correction analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1829-1855, October.
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    27. Lutz Kilian & Tao Zha, 2002. "Quantifying the uncertainty about the half-life of deviations from PPP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(2), pages 107-125.
    28. Berka, Martin, 2005. "General Equilibrium Model of Arbitrage Trade and Real Exchange Rate Persistence," MPRA Paper 234, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. I Paya & D Peel, 2005. "Temporal aggregation of an ESTAR process," Working Papers 565938, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    2. Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2004. "Nonlinear Ppp Under The Gold Standard," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-24, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    3. Ivan Paya & David Peel, 2005. "The process followed by PPP data. On the properties of linearity tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2515-2522.
    4. Yamin Ahmad & Ivan Paya, 2014. "Temporal Aggregation of Random Walk Processes and Implications for Asset Prices," Working Papers 14-01, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics.
    5. Boutahar, Mohamed & Mootamri, Imène & Péguin-Feissolle, Anne, 2009. "A fractionally integrated exponential STAR model applied to the US real effective exchange rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, pages 335-341.
    6. Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2011. "Systematic sampling of nonlinear models: Evidence on speed of adjustment in index futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 192-203, February.
    7. Pavlidis, Efthymios G. & Paya, Ivan & Peel, David A., 2011. "Real exchange rates and time-varying trade costs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1157-1179, October.
    8. Juvenal Luciana & Taylor Mark P., 2008. "Threshold Adjustment of Deviations from the Law of One Price," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-46, September.
    9. Derek Stimel, 2010. "Choice of Aggregate Demand Proxy and its Affect on Phillips Curve Nonlinearity: U.S. Evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 543-557.
    10. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:543-557 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2005. "A New Analysis Of The Determinants Of The Real Dollar-Sterling Exchange Rate: 1871-1994," Working Papers. Serie AD 2005-16, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    12. Mohamed Boutahar & Imene Mootamri & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2007. "An exponential FISTAR model applied to the US real effective exchange rate," Working Papers halshs-00353836, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ESTAR; Real Exchange Rate; Purchasing Power Parity; Aggregation.;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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