Searching for Nonlinearities in Real Exchange Rates?
A recent innovation in modeling exchange rates has been the use of nonlinear techniques such as threshold autoregressive models and its smooth transition variants. This paper investigates the smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) modeling strategy in an application to real exchange rates. The key findings are as follows. First, using the methodology advocated by Teräsvirta (1994), we find evidence of nonlinear dynamics for several of the spot dollar real exchange rates using monthly data on five of the G7 countries. However, once estimated, we find that the STAR specification is appropriate for only one of the three exchange rate series indicated to be an ESTAR process. Moreover, using simulations, we show that the underlying methodology used to detect nonlinearities in the data exhibit substantial size biases, which we attribute to influential observations. We also investigate an alternative nonlinear specification and find that we can model the dollar-sterling and the dollar-lira real exchange rates better as an open-loop TAR process instead of a SETAR process.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2007|
|Date of revision:||Jan 2009|
|Publication status:||published in Applied Economics, 43 (15), May 2011, pp. 1829 - 1845|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (414) 472-1361
Web page: http://www.uww.edu/cobe/economics/main.html
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Meese, Richard A & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1988.
" Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Relation over the Modern Floating-Rate Period,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 933-48, September.
- Meese, R. & Rogoff, K., 1988. "Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Ralation Over The Modern Floating-Rate Period," Working papers 368, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P, 2001.
"Why is it so Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May.
- Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Why is it so difficult to beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-031/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2001. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Working Paper Series 0088, European Central Bank.
- Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Why Is It So Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 464, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
- Patel, Jayendu, 1990. "Purchasing Power Parity as a Long-Run Relation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 367-79, Oct.-Dec..
- Taylor, Alan M. & Taylor, Mark P, 2004.
"The Purchasing Power Parity Debate,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4495, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Enders, Walter, 1988. "ARIMA and Cointegration Tests of PPP under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(3), pages 504-08, August.
- Lothian, James R. & Taylor, Mark P., 2006.
"Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries : How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect?,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
768, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- JamesR. Lothian & MarkP. Taylor, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries: How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1742-1763, October.
- Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001.
"Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-42, November.
- Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997.
"Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Michael-Nobay-Peel ESTAR models," Statistical Software Components RTZ00113, Boston College Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uww:wpaper:09-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Yamin Ahmad)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.