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Measuring Market Integration: Foreign Exchange Arbitrage and the Gold Standard, 1879-1913

Author

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  • Eugene Canjels
  • Gauri Prakash-Canjels
  • Alan M. Taylor

Abstract

A major question in the literature on the classical gold standard concerns the efficiency of international arbitrage. Authors have examined efficiency by looking at the spread of the gold points, gold point violations, the flow of gold, or by tests of various asset market criteria, including speculative efficiency and interest arbitrage. These studies have suffered from many limitations, both methodological and empirical. We offer a new methodology for measuring market integration based on nonlinear theoretical models and threshold autoregressions. We also compile a new, high-frequency series of continuous daily data from 1879 to 1913. We can derive reasonable econometric estimates of the implied gold points and price dynamics. The changes in these measures over time provide an insight into the evolution of market integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Eugene Canjels & Gauri Prakash-Canjels & Alan M. Taylor, 2004. "Measuring Market Integration: Foreign Exchange Arbitrage and the Gold Standard, 1879-1913," NBER Working Papers 10583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10583 Note: DAE IFM
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jacks, David S. & Yan, Se & Zhao, Liuyan, 2017. "Silver points, silver flows, and the measure of Chinese financial integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 377-386.
    2. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael R., 2008. "Investor sentiment in the US-dollar: Longer-term, non-linear orientation on PPP," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, pages 455-467.
    3. Stephen Norman, 2016. "Attractor misspecification and threshold estimation bias," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 1911-1921.
    4. A. Malliaris & Mary Malliaris, 2013. "Are oil, gold and the euro inter-related? Time series and neural network analysis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 1-14, January.
    5. Stefaano Ugolini, 2012. "The Bank of England as the World gold market-maker during the Classical gold standard era, 1889-1910," Working Paper 2012/15, Norges Bank.
    6. Boerner, Lars & Volckart, Oliver, 2011. "The utility of a common coinage: Currency unions and the integration of money markets in late Medieval Central Europe," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 53-65, January.
    7. William D. Craighead, 2010. "Across Time And Regimes: 212 Years Of The Us-Uk Real Exchange Rate," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(4), pages 951-964, October.
    8. Peter Kugler, 2011. "Financial Market Integration in Late Medieval Europe: Results from a Threshold Error Correction Model for the Rhinegulden and Basle Pound 1365-1429," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 147(III), pages 337-352, September.
    9. Jacks, David S., 2006. "What drove 19th century commodity market integration?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 383-412, July.
    10. Nogues-Marco, Pilar, 2013. "Competing Bimetallic Ratios: Amsterdam, London, and Bullion Arbitrage in Mid-Eighteenth Century," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 73(02), pages 445-476, June.
    11. Chilosi, David & Volckart, Oliver, 2009. "Money, states and empire: financial integration cycles and institutional change in Central Europe, 1400-1520," Economic History Working Papers 27884, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    12. Bruce Blonigen & Anca Cristea, 2013. "The Effects of the Interstate Commerce Act on Transport Costs: Evidence from Wheat Prices," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 43(1), pages 41-62, August.
    13. Morys, Matthias, 2013. "Discount rate policy under the Classical Gold Standard: Core versus periphery (1870s–1914)," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 205-226.
    14. Volckart, Oliver & Wolf, Nikolaus, 2004. "Estimating medieval market integration: Evidence from exchange rates," Discussion Papers 2004/21, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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