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The Consumption-Wealth Ratio Under Asymmetric Adjustment

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This paper argues that nonlinear adjustment may provide a better explanation of °uctuations in the consumption-wealth ratio. The nonlinearity is captured by a Markov-switching vector error-correction model that allows the dynamics of the relationship to di®er across regimes. Estimation of the system suggests that these states are related to the behaviour of ¯nancial markets. In fact, estimation of the system suggests that short-term deviations in the consumption-wealth ratio will forecast either asset returns or consumption growth: the ¯rst when changes in wealth are transitory; the second when changes in wealth are permanent. Our approach uncovers a richer and more complex dynamics in the consumption-wealth ratio than previous results in the literature, whilst being in accordance with theoretical predictions of a simple model of consumption under uncertainty.

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  • Fernando Alexandre & Vasco J. Gabriel & Pedro Bação, 2007. "The Consumption-Wealth Ratio Under Asymmetric Adjustment," NIPE Working Papers 15/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  • Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:15/2007
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    Cited by:

    1. Kontana Dimitra & Fountas Stilianos, 2022. "Consumption, personal income, financial wealth, housing wealth, and long-term interest rates: a panel cointegration approach for 50 US states," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 26(3), pages 417-435, June.
    2. Mark J. HOLMES & Xin SHEN, 2015. "On Wealth Volatility, Asymmetries And The Average Propensity To Consume In The United States," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 15(1), pages 69-78.
    3. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação & Vasco J. Gabriel, 2005. "On the Stability of the Wealth Effect," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1405, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    4. Frank Schmid, 2013. "Wealth Effects on Consumption in Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 149(I), pages 87-110, March.
    5. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2010. "Collateralizable Wealth, Asset Returns, and Systemic Risk: International Evidence," NIPE Working Papers 15/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    6. Holmes, Mark J. & Shen, Xin, 2013. "A note on the average propensity to consume, wealth and threshold adjustment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 309-313.
    7. Fernando Alexandre & Luís Aguiar Conraria & Pedro Bação & Miguel Portela, 2011. "A Poupança em Portugal," GEMF Working Papers 2011-19, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption; Financial markets; Uncertainty; Forecast; Markov switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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