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Strategic Asset Allocation and Consumption Decisions under Multivariate Regime Switching

Author

Listed:
  • Massimo Guidolin, University of Virginia
  • Allan Timmermann

Abstract

This paper studies optimal asset allocation to stocks, long-term bonds and T-bills and consumption choice in the presence of regime switching in asset returns. Optimal asset allocations vary considerably across four states - both across bonds and stocks and among large and small stocks - and change significantly over time as investors revise their estimates of the current state probabilities. In the crash state investors always allocate more of their portfolio to stocks the longer their investment horizon, while the optimal allocation to stocks declines as a function of the investment horizon in bull markets. Consumption-to-wealth ratios are also found to depend on the underlying state. Welfare costs from ignoring regime switching are substantial, especially when frequent rebalancing is considered. Results are found to be robust to changes in risk aversion, the imposition of short sale restrictions, the inclusion of standard predictor variables such as the dividend yield and to parameter uncertainty

Suggested Citation

  • Massimo Guidolin, University of Virginia & Allan Timmermann, 2004. "Strategic Asset Allocation and Consumption Decisions under Multivariate Regime Switching," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 349, Econometric Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecm:ausm04:349
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Roger Bowden & Jennifer Zhu, 2010. "Multi-scale variation, path risk and long-term portfolio management," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(7), pages 783-796.
    2. Marie Brière & Ombretta Signori, 2011. "Inflation hedging portfolios in different regimes," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 139-163, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3503-3544, November.
    4. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Peel, David, 2007. "Simulating stock returns under switching regimes - A new test of market efficiency," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 235-239, February.
    5. Gabriel Vasco J. & Alexandre Fernando & Bação Pedro, 2008. "The Consumption-Wealth Ratio under Asymmetric Adjustment," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(4), pages 1-32, December.
    6. Guidolin, Massimo & Ono, Sadayuki, 2006. "Are the dynamic linkages between the macroeconomy and asset prices time-varying?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 480-518.
    7. Bernd Scherer, 2009. "A note on portfolio choice for sovereign wealth funds," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 23(3), pages 315-327, September.
    8. Mark E. Wohar & David E. Rapach, 2005. "Return Predictability and the Implied Intertemporal Hedging Demands for Stocks and Bonds: International Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 329, Society for Computational Economics.
    9. Marie Brière & Ombretta Signori, 2012. "Inflation-Hedging Portfolios : Economic Regimes Matter," Post-Print hal-01494498, HAL.
    10. J. Sa‐Aadu & James Shilling & Ashish Tiwari, 2010. "On the Portfolio Properties of Real Estate in Good Times and Bad Times1," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 529-565, September.
    11. John Powell & Rubén Roa & Jing Shi & Viliphonh Xayavong, 2007. "A Test for Long-Term Cyclical Clustering of Stock Market Regimes," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 32(2), pages 205-221, December.
    12. Klaus Grobys, 2012. "Active PortofolioManagement in the Presence of Regime Switching: What Are the Benefits of Defensive Asset Allocation Strategies If the Investor Faces Bear Markets?," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 4(1), pages 015-031, June.
    13. Asger Lunde & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Completion time structures of stock price movements," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 293-326, August.
    14. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Masih, Rumi & Bacha, Obiyathulla Ismath & Masih, A. Mansur M., 2017. "The role of Islamic asset classes in the diversified portfolios: Mean variance spanning test," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 66-95.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    asset allocation; regime switching; risk aversion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A - General Economics and Teaching

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