Simulating Stock Returns under switching regimes - a new test of market efficiency
A model of profits switches between four regimes with fixed probabilities; the rationally expected profits stream implies the stock market value. This efficient market model is not rejected by UK post-war time-series behaviour of either profits or the FTSE index.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Economics Letters , 94 (2007), pp. 235-239|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +44 (0) 29 20874417
Fax: +44 (0) 29 20874419
Web page: http://business.cardiff.ac.uk/research/academic-sections/economics/working-papers
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan & White, Halbert, 2001. "Dangers of data mining: The case of calendar effects in stock returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 249-286, November.
- Sergio Rebelo, 2005.
"Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present, and Future,"
NBER Working Papers
11401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- S. Rebelo., 2010. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present, and Future," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 10.
- Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present and Future," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(2), pages 217-238, 06.
- Rebelo, Sérgio, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present and Future," CEPR Discussion Papers 5384, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present and Future," RCER Working Papers 522, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Cecchetti, Stephen G & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C, 1990.
"Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 398-418, June.
- Goetzmann, William N. & Jorion, Philippe, 1999.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 1-32, March.
- William N. Goetzmann & Philippe Jorion, 1997. "Re-emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 5906, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Philippe Jorion & William N. Goetzmann, 1998. "Re-Emerging Markets," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm111, Yale School of Management.
- William Goetzmann & Philippe Jorion, 1998. "Re-emerging Markets," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm50, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2000.
- Tom Arnold & Philip Hersch & J. Harold Mulherin & Jeffry Netter, 1999. "Merging Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 1083-1107, 06.
- Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007.
"Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3503-3544, November.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2006. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Working Papers 2005-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Rydén, Tobias & Teräsvirta, Timo & Åsbrink, Stefan, 1996.
"Stylized Facts of Daily Return Series and the Hidden Markov Model,"
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
117, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Tobias Rydén & Timo Teräsvirta & Stefan Åsbrink, 1998. "Stylized facts of daily return series and the hidden Markov model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 217-244.
- R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010.
"The equity premium: a puzzle,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
1401, David K. Levine.
- Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July.
- Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1988. "The equity risk premium: A solution?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 133-136, July.
- Patrick Minford & David Peel, 2002. "Advanced Macroeconomics," Books, Edward Elgar, number 1775, March.
- Hamilton, James D & Gang, Lin, 1996. "Stock Market Volatility and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 573-93, Sept.-Oct.
- Allan Timmermann, 1999.
"Moments of Markov Switching Models,"
FMG Discussion Papers
dp323, Financial Markets Group.
- Turner, Christopher M. & Startz, Richard & Nelson, Charles R., 1989.
"A Markov model of heteroskedasticity, risk, and learning in the stock market,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 3-22, November.
- Christopher M. Turner & Richard Startz & Charles R. Nelson, 1989. "A Markov Model of Heteroskedasticity, Risk, and Learning in the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 2818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Economic Implications of Bull and Bear Regimes in UK Stock and Bond Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 111-143, 01.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
- Massimo Guidolin, University of Virginia & Allan Timmermann, 2004. "Strategic Asset Allocation and Consumption Decisions under Multivariate Regime Switching," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 349, Econometric Society.
- Philippe Jorion & William N. Goetzmann, 1999. "Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 953-980, 06.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "Optimal portfolio choice under regime switching, skew and kurtosis preferences," Working Papers 2005-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2006/13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bruce Webb)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.