Markov-switching Asset Allocation: Do Profitable Strategies Exist?
This paper proposes a straightforward Markov-switching asset allocation model, which reduces the market exposure to periods of high volatility. The main purpose of the study is to examine the performance of a regime-based asset allocation strategy under realistic assumptions, compared to a buy and hold strategy. An empirical study, utilizing daily return series of major equity indices in the US, Japan, and Germany over the last 40 years, investigates the performance of the model. In an out-of-sample context, the strategy proves profitable after taking transaction costs into account. For the regional markets under consideration, the volatility reduces on average by 41%. Additionally, annualized excess returns attain 18.5 to 201.6 basis points.
|Date of creation:||07 Jan 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
- Jan Bulla & Andreas Berzel, 2008. "Computational issues in parameter estimation for stationary hidden Markov models," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 1-18, January.
- Schwert, G William, 1989.
" Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-53, December.
- G. William Schwert, 1988. "Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?," NBER Working Papers 2798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tobias Rydén & Timo Teräsvirta & Stefan Åsbrink, 1998.
"Stylized facts of daily return series and the hidden Markov model,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 217-244.
- Rydén, Tobias & Teräsvirta, Timo & Åsbrink, Stefan, 1996. "Stylized Facts of Daily Return Series and the Hidden Markov Model," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 117, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Graflund, Andreas & Nilsson, Birger, 2002.
"Dynamic Portfolio Selection: The Relevance of Switching Regimes and Investment Horizon,"
2002:8, Lund University, Department of Economics.
- Andreas Graflund & Birger Nilsson, 2003. "Dynamic Portfolio Selection: the Relevance of Switching Regimes and Investment Horizon," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 9(2), pages 179-200.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Economic Implications of Bull and Bear Regimes in UK Stock and Bond Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 111-143, 01.
- Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
- Manuel Ammann & Michael Verhofen, 2006. "The Effect of Market Regimes on Style Allocation," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 309-337, September.
- Turner, Christopher M. & Startz, Richard & Nelson, Charles R., 1989.
"A Markov model of heteroskedasticity, risk, and learning in the stock market,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 3-22, November.
- Christopher M. Turner & Richard Startz & Charles R. Nelson, 1989. "A Markov Model of Heteroskedasticity, Risk, and Learning in the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 2818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jedrzej Bialkowski, 2004. "Modelling Returns on Stock Indices for Western and Central European Stock Exchanges - a Markov Switching Approach," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 2(2), pages 81-100.
- Martin Hess, 2006. "Timing and diversification: A state-dependent asset allocation approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 189-204.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21154. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.