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Regime dependent dynamics and European stock markets: Is asset allocation really possible?

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  • Wasim Ahmad
  • N. Bhanumurthy
  • Sanjay Sehgal

Abstract

In this study, we examine the regime shifts and volatility in stock market returns of eighteen European stock markets and the USA and utilize these regimes in asset allocation and risk management contexts. Using a Markov regime switching model, the study finds strong evidence of regime switching characterized by two regimes over the sample period from February, 1996 to January, 2012. Smoothed probabilities and time-varying conditional volatilities also highlight the meaningful turning points including the recent global financial crisis (2008) and Eurozone crisis (2009). Analyzing the market synchronization and Sharpe ratios, the study finally concludes that sample markets provide very limited scope of asset allocation and risk diversification. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Wasim Ahmad & N. Bhanumurthy & Sanjay Sehgal, 2015. "Regime dependent dynamics and European stock markets: Is asset allocation really possible?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 77-107, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:42:y:2015:i:1:p:77-107
    DOI: 10.1007/s10663-014-9248-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Kim Hiang Liow & Qing Ye, 2018. "Regime dependent volatilities and correlation in international securitized real estate markets," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 457-487, August.
    2. Gupta, Priyanshi & Sehgal, Sanjay & Deisting, Florent, 2015. "Time-Varying Bond Market Integration in EMU," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 30(4), pages 708-760.
    3. Mihály Ormos & Dusán Timotity, 2017. "Expected downside risk and asset prices: characteristics of emerging and developed European markets," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(3), pages 529-546, August.
    4. Sehgal, Sanjay & Gupta, Priyanshi & Deisting, Florent, 2014. "Assessing Time-Varying Stock Market Integration in EMU for Normal and Crisis Periods," MPRA Paper 64078, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bhimjee, Diptes C. & Ramos, Sofia B. & Dias, José G., 2016. "Banking industry performance in the wake of the global financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 376-387.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov switching model; European stock markets; Regime shifts; Synchronization; Asset allocation; C22; C51; E44; F21; G15;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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