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Business Cycle Synchronization and the Euro: a Wavelet Analysis

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Abstract

We use wavelet analysis to study cycle synchronization across the EU-15 and the Euro-12 countries. Based on the wavelet transform, we propose a metric to measure and test for business cycles synchronization. Several conclusions emerge. France and Germany form the core of the Euro land, being the most synchronized countries with the rest of Europe. Portugal, Greece, Ireland and Finland do not show statistically relevant degrees of synchronization with Europe. We also show that some countries (like Spain) have a French accent, while others have a German accent (e.g. Austria). Perhaps surprisingly, we find that the French business cycle has been leading the German business cycle as well as the rest of Europe. Among the countries that may, in the future, join the Euro, the Czech Republic seems the most promising candidate.

Suggested Citation

  • Luís Francisco Aguiar & Maria Joana Soares, 2010. "Business Cycle Synchronization and the Euro: a Wavelet Analysis," NIPE Working Papers 36/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  • Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:36/2010
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    File URL: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/docs/2010/NIPE_WP_36_2010.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Jim, 2012. "Measuring business cycle comovements in Europe: Evidence from a dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 438-440.
    2. Jim Lee, 2013. "Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe: Evidence from a Dynamic Factor Model," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 347-364, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle synchronization; European Union integration; Continuous wavelet transform; Wavelet distance matrix; Multidimensional scaling;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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