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Revisiting business cycle synchronisation in the European Union

Author

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  • António Afonso
  • Ana Sequeira

Abstract

We assess the business cycle synchronization features of aggregate output in the 27 EU countries using annual data for the period 1970-2009. In particular, we compute measures of synchronisation for private consumption, government spending, gross fixed capital formation, exports and imports. Our results show a rise in synchronization over the full period, and although private consumption is the biggest component of GDP, external demand tends to be a more important determinant of business cycle synchronization.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & Ana Sequeira, 2010. "Revisiting business cycle synchronisation in the European Union," Working Papers Department of Economics 2010/22, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp222010
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Norman Gemmell & Richard Kneller & Danny McGowan & Ismael Sanz & José F. Sanz‐Sanz, 2018. "Corporate Taxation and Productivity Catch‐Up: Evidence from European Firms," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 120(2), pages 372-399, April.
    2. Jim Lee, 2013. "Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe: Evidence from a Dynamic Factor Model," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 347-364, September.
    3. Mao, Xuegeng & Yang, Albert C. & Peng, Chung-Kang & Shang, Pengjian, 2020. "Analysis of economic growth fluctuations based on EEMD and causal decomposition," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 553(C).
    4. Wasim Ahmad & N. Bhanumurthy & Sanjay Sehgal, 2015. "Regime dependent dynamics and European stock markets: Is asset allocation really possible?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 77-107, February.
    5. Valerija Botric & Tanja Broz & Sasa Jaksic, 2019. "Business Cycle Synchronisation with the Euro Area Countries at Times of Crisis: Differences Between SEE and CEE Countries," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 17(2), pages 175-191.
    6. Styliani Christodoulopoulou, 2014. "The effect of currency unions on business cycle correlations: the EMU case," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 177-222, May.
    7. Ahlborn, Markus & Wortmann, Marcus, 2018. "The core‒periphery pattern of European business cycles: A fuzzy clustering approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 12-27.
    8. Chee-Heong Quah, 2014. "Clustering eurozone cycles," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(6), pages 3447-3462, November.
    9. Lindman, Sebastian & Tuvhag, Tom & Jayasekera, Ranadeva & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Troster, Victor, 2020. "Market Impact on financial market integration: Cross-quantilogram analysis of the global impact of the euro," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 42-73.
    10. António Afonso, 2013. "Anatomy of a fiscal débacle: the case of Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2013/01, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EU; business cycle synchronization.;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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