IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ise/isegwp/wp012013.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Anatomy of a fiscal débacle: the case of Portugal

Author

Listed:
  • António Afonso

Abstract

After entering the EU in 1986, Portugal benefited from low interest rates and some growth momentum. However, the difficulty in taming fiscal imbalances, the pro-cyclicality of fiscal policy, the use of extraordinary fiscal measures, coupled with the 2008-2009 economic and financial crisis led to a fiscal débacle and to an international financial rescue in 2011.We briefly review here those developments.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso, 2013. "Anatomy of a fiscal débacle: the case of Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2013/01, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp012013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://depeco.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wp/wp012013.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. António Afonso & Peter Claeys & Ricardo Sousa, 2011. "Fiscal regime shifts in Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 10(2), pages 83-108, August.
    2. Carlos Marinheiro, 2006. "The sustainability of Portuguese fiscal policy from a historical perspective," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 155-179, June.
    3. António Afonso & Ana Sequeira, 2010. "Revisiting business cycle synchronisation in the European Union," Working Papers Department of Economics 2010/22, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    4. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 731-755, January.
    5. António Afonso & Davide Furceri, 2009. "Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization in the European Union," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2996-3014.
    6. Kontonikas, Alexandros & Arghyrou, Michael G. & Afonso, António, 2012. "The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-88, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    7. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2012. "Revisiting fiscal sustainability: panel cointegration and structural breaks in OECD countries," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/29, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    8. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes, 2011. "Do Fiscal Imbalances Deteriorate Sovereign Debt Ratings ?," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 62(6), pages 1123-1134.
    9. Afonso, António & Nunes, Ana Sofia, 2015. "Economic forecasts and sovereign yields," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 319-326.
    10. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-44, March.
    11. Carlos Marinheiro, 2005. "Sustainability of Portuguese Fiscal Policy in Historical Perspective," GEMF Working Papers 2005-01, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    12. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2013. "Growth and productivity: The role of government debt," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 384-407.
    13. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide & Gomes, Pedro, 2012. "Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: Application to European data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 606-638.
    14. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2011. "Short‐ and long‐run determinants of sovereign debt credit ratings," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, January.
    15. António Afonso & Miguel St. Aubyn, 2009. "Macroeconomic Rates Of Return Of Public And Private Investment: Crowding‐In And Crowding‐Out Effects," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(s1), pages 21-39, September.
    16. Stéphanie Guichard & Willi Leibfritz, 2006. "The Fiscal Challenge in Portugal," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 489, OECD Publishing.
    17. António Afonso & Ricardo Sousa, 2011. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Portugal: a Bayesian SVAR analysis," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 10(1), pages 61-82, April.
    18. Ant�nio Afonso, 2010. "Expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe: new evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 105-109, January.
    19. Afonso, Antonio & Claeys, Peter, 2008. "The dynamic behaviour of budget components and output," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 93-117, January.
    20. Antonio Afonso & Ricardo Sousa, 2011. "Assessing long-term fiscal developments: evidence from Portugal," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-5.
    21. António Afonso & Jorge Silva, 2012. "The Fiscal Forecasting Track Record of the European Commission and Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/37, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    22. António Afonso & Ludger Schuknecht & Vito Tanzi, 2005. "Public sector efficiency: An international comparison," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 321-347, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lopes, Luís & Antunes, Margarida, 2016. "From budgetary instrument to the budgetary objective: The Portuguese case," IPE Working Papers 79/2016, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    2. António Afonso, & Manish K. Singh, 2016. "Is the supply of long-term debt independent of the term premia? Evidence from Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2016/11, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. António Afonso & Peter Claeys & Ricardo Sousa, 2011. "Fiscal regime shifts in Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 10(2), pages 83-108, August.
    2. António Afonso & Ricardo Sousa, 2011. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Portugal: a Bayesian SVAR analysis," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 10(1), pages 61-82, April.
    3. António Afonso, 2007. "Public finances in Portugal: a brief longrun view," Working Papers Department of Economics 2007/01, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    4. António Afonso, & Jorge Caiado, & Miguel St. Aubyn, 2015. "The macro impact of the Portuguese Constitutional Court decisions regarding the budgetary proposals of the Portuguese Budget Law (2012, 2013, 2014)," Working Papers Department of Economics 2015/06, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    5. Adnan Habib & Jamshaid Rehman & Tasneem Zafar & Haider Mahmood, 2016. "Does sustainability hypothesis hold in developed countries? A panel co-integration analysis," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
    6. António AFONSO & Priscilla TOFFANO, 2013. "Fiscal regimes in the EU," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven ces13.06, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    7. Janne Tukiainen & Sebastian Blesse & Albrecht Bohne & Leonardo M. Giuffrida & Jan Jäässkeläinen & Ari Luukinen & Antti Sieppi, 2021. "What Are the Priorities of Bureaucrats? Evidence from Conjoint Experiments with Procurement Officials," EconPol Working Paper 63, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    8. António Afonso & João Jalles, 2014. "A longer-run perspective on fiscal sustainability," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 821-847, November.
    9. Afonso, António & Alves, José & Jalles, João Tovar, 2022. "To consolidate or not to consolidate? A multi-step analysis to assess needed fiscal sustainability," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 106-123.
    10. Afonso, António & Agnello, Luca & Furceri, Davide & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2011. "Assessing long-term fiscal developments: A new approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 130-146, February.
    11. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2012. "Revisiting fiscal sustainability: panel cointegration and structural breaks in OECD countries," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/29, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    12. Afonso, António & Tovar Jalles, João & Venâncio, Ana, 2022. "Do financial markets reward government spending efficiency?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    13. van Riet, Ad, 2010. "Euro area fiscal policies and the crisis," Occasional Paper Series 109, European Central Bank.
    14. De Santis, Roberto A. & Legrenzi, Gabriella & Milas, Costas, 2015. "Fiscal policy adjustments in the euro area stressed countries: new evidence from non-linear models with state-varying thresholds," Working Paper Series 1858, European Central Bank.
    15. Nicolas Jannone Bellot, MaLuisa Marti Selva, Leandro Garcia Menendez, 2017. "Herding Behaviour among Credit Rating Agencies," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 2(1), pages 56-83, March.
    16. Afonso, António & Rault, Christophe, 2015. "Multi-step analysis of public finances sustainability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 199-209.
    17. Ionel Bostan & Carmen Toderașcu & Anca Florentina Gavriluţă (Vatamanu), 2018. "Challenges and Vulnerabilities on Public Finance Sustainability. A Romanian Case Study," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-24, September.
    18. Bystrov, Victor & Mackiewicz, Michał, 2020. "Recurrent explosive public debts and the long-run fiscal sustainability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 437-450.
    19. Bundala, Ntogwa, 2012. "Do Economic Growth, Human Development and Political Stability favour sovereign Creditworthiness of a Country? A Cross Country Survey on Developed and Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 47626, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Jasper Lukkezen & Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, 2012. "When is debt sustainable?," CPB Discussion Paper 212, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Portugal; public finances; fiscal imbalances;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp012013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vitor Escaria (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://aquila.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/departamentos/EC .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.