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Anatomy of a fiscal débacle: the case of Portugal

  • António Afonso

After entering the EU in 1986, Portugal benefited from low interest rates and some growth momentum. However, the difficulty in taming fiscal imbalances, the pro-cyclicality of fiscal policy, the use of extraordinary fiscal measures, coupled with the 2008-2009 economic and financial crisis led to a fiscal débacle and to an international financial rescue in 2011.We briefly review here those developments.

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Paper provided by ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon in its series Working Papers Department of Economics with number 2013/01.

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Date of creation: Jan 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp012013
Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, University of Lisbon, Rua do Quelhas 6, 1200-781 LISBON, PORTUGAL
Web page: https://aquila1.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/departamentos/EC

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  1. Afonso, António & Nunes, Ana Sofia, 2015. "Economic forecasts and sovereign yields," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 319-326.
  2. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2013. "Growth and productivity: The role of government debt," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 384-407.
  3. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2008. "What do we really Know about Fiscal Sustainability in the EU? A Panel Data Diagnostic," CESifo Working Paper Series 2226, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. António Afonso & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Portugal: a Bayesian SVAR Analysis," Working Papers Department of Economics 2009/09, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  5. António Afonso & Peter Claeys & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2009. "Fiscal Regime Shifts in Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2009/39, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  6. António Afonso & Jorge Silva, 2012. "The Fiscal Forecasting Track Record of the European Commission and Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/37, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  7. Afonso, António & Claeys, Peter, 2007. "The dynamic behaviour of budget components and output," Working Paper Series 0775, European Central Bank.
  8. Afonso, António & Arghyrou, Michael G. & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2012. "The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-88, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  9. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide & Gomes, Pedro, 2011. "Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: application to European data," Working Paper Series 1347, European Central Bank.
  10. António Afonso, 2010. "Expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe: new evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 105-109, January.
  11. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2011. "Short‐ and long‐run determinants of sovereign debt credit ratings," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, 01.
  12. Afonso, António & St. Aubyn, Miguel, 2008. "Macroeconomic rates of return of public and private investment: crowding-in and crowding-out effects," Working Paper Series 0864, European Central Bank.
  13. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes, 2011. "Do Fiscal Imbalances Deteriorate Sovereign Debt Ratings ?," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 62(6), pages 1123-1134.
  14. Antonio Afonso & Ricardo Sousa, 2011. "Assessing long-term fiscal developments: evidence from Portugal," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-5.
  15. Carlos Marinheiro, 2006. "The sustainability of Portuguese fiscal policy from a historical perspective," Empirica, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 155-179, June.
  16. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-, March.
  17. Stéphanie Guichard & Willi Leibfritz, 2006. "The Fiscal Challenge in Portugal," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 489, OECD Publishing.
  18. António Afonso & Ludger Schuknecht & Vito Tanzi, 2005. "Public sector efficiency: An international comparison," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 321-347, June.
  19. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2012. "Revisiting fiscal sustainability: panel cointegration and structural breaks in OECD countries," Working Paper Series 1465, European Central Bank.
  20. António Afonso & Davide Furceri, 2009. "Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization in the European Union," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2996-3014.
  21. António Afonso & Ana Sequeira, 2010. "Revisiting business cycle synchronisation in the European Union," Working Papers Department of Economics 2010/22, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
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